Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, May 25, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2003

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN QUITE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWFA. THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WILL SURROUND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO INCREASE FURTHER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT...PLACING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE RR QUAD BETWEEN 00
AND 06Z. CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE ALREADY INDICATING A TRAINING
TREND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NC PIEDMONT...AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT OF SC. WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING...AND CONSIDERING ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE I-77
CORRIDOR. WEST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A
DECENT SHOT OF SEEING SOME RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING...BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL INHIBIT HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

THE MODELS INIDCATE ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE BOUNDARY
TOMORROW...BUT WITH LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD BE OF A SCATTERED NATURE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. MEANWHILE...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND
WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA TOMORROW. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH DEEP LAYER RH SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY...AND HAVE OPTED TO
SHOTGUN A SILENT 20 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
AND CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO THE CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DOES SEND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WARRANTING A MENTION OF
POPS.

FCSTID = 4
GSP   62  81  60  77 /  60  40  20  20
AND   62  81  59  78 /  50  20  10  20
CLT   62  81  60  76 /  80  50  20  20
HKY   60  77  58  73 /  60  40  10  20
AVL   58  67  53  72 /  70  20  10  20

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES NCZ036>037...NCZ056>057...
NCZ069>072...NCZ082.

SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONE SCZ009.

LANE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-251615-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FROM ELBERTON AND
ABBEVILLE NORTHEAST TO CHESTER AND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED AT
1050 AM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAIN WHERE SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA REPEATEDLY...
MAINLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE AREA FROM GREENVILLE AND
RUTHERFORDTON EAST TO GASTONIA...METRO CHARLOTTE...AND SALISBURY
WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOOD PROBLEMS DUE TO THE
EXCESSIVE RAINS OF LAST WEEK. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY...AND THERE IS THE
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THEM COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MOORE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-252030-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2003

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING - WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...

MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IN PIEDMONT AREAS...ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85 IN GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS...AND ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 IN NORTH
CAROLINA...A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAUSE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND STORMS...AND
TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IT IS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THOSE SAME AREAS.  RAINFALL OF AN INCH AND A HALF
OR SO IN 1 TO 3 HOURS COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD CHANGE INTO A
COMPLEX OF REPEATING THUNDERSTORMS OVER AN EVEN LARGER AREA.  THESE
STORMS COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS...AS WELL AS THE PIEDMONT.  IF THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPS...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD GENERAL FLOODING INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE QUITE
COMMON...WITH ISOLATED 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THIS THREAT.

LISTEN TO WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR LATER
INFORMATION.

JONES

NCZ071-SCZ009-251915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN YORK COUNTY SOUTH CAROLINA...

AT 215 PM...WEATHER RADAR SHOWED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN YORK COUNTY BETWEEN THE CITIES OF YORK AND ROCK HILL.
THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ON ITS PRESENT TRACK...THIS STORM WILL MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF
LAKE WYLIE AROUND 220 PM...THEN PINEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 235
PM...AND MATTHEWS AROUND 250 PM. THIS THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH. BOATERS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE
WYLIE SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO AVOID THE STORM.

A WARNING MAY BE ISSUED IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

MOORE