Damaging Wind in North Carolina, March 20, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
937 AM EST THU MAR 20 2003

PUBLIC: LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING EASTWARD.  AT THIS
TIME THEY ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. LINE HAS BEGUN TO BECOME MORE LEWPY IN THE PAST 1 HOUR BUT LAPS
LIFTED INDEX SHOWS STABILITES GREATER THAN 0 FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OF
CWA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF GEORGETOWN.

AS SPC HAD INDICATED THAT WEDGE OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND GOOD SHEAR
WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AND THEY HAVE
REMOVED AREA FROM THE MODERATE RISK.  WILL MAKE ONLY A FEW CHANGES
TO MORNING PACKAGE.

MARINE: GUSTY WINDS DUE TO CONVECTION BEING REPORTED INLAND. STORMS
TO ROLL OVER COASTAL WATERS AND CURRENT WORDING ACCOUNTS FOR
DECREASED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE MADE AS FCST IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

.ILM...
.NC...FFA ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THU NIGHT.
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ250-252.
.SC...FFA ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THU NIGHT.
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ254-256.

PUBLIC: HAWKINS
MARINE: PJN

--------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION----------------------------
PUBLIC: CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX TONIGHT...WILL KEEP
THIS SHORT SO AS TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE DEVELOPING SITUATION.
AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER SPC SVR TSTM WATCH THRU 4 AM. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE WARNING BOXES EXTENDING FURTHER EAST TO COVER MORE
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH DIFFERING ON THE
DETAILS...AVN/ETA AGREE ON THU AS A DAY OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH
HEAVY PCPN. ETA BUFKIT HAS QPF VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES FOR TODAY.
SO...THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD. MORE POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTION ON FRI UNTIL COLD FRONT PASSAGE THAT NIGHT. AFTER
THIS...LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR MUCH MORE CALM WX
INTO THE OUTLOOK PD.

MARINE: COASTAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING
AS WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE SHIFTED ESE. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN W OF
FRYING PAN SHOALS SINCE THIS EVENING...AND WINDS ARE ON THE INCREASE
THERE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL JET
CROSSES THE REGION TODAY...AND WORRIED THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MIGHT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THESE WINDS DESPITE THE COOLER
SHELF WATERS.  THEREFORE BUMPED UP FORECAST WINDS TO 25-30 KT NRN
WATERS AND 25 KT SRN WATERS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
BUILD NICELY...AND THEY ARE ALREADY UP TO 6 FT AT FRYING PAN AND 7
FT AT EDISTO. SO ALSO ADJUSTED SEAS UP TODAY.

FEW OTHER CHANGES IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH FOCUS ON ONGOING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...DID SPEED UP THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO FRI
NIGHT.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...40
ILM 071/064 076/057 +783
LBT 068/060 077/053 +783
FLO 070/061 077/054 +793
MYR 068/064 075/058 +783

PUBLIC: KREITNER
MARINE: JAQ

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-202000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 AM EST THU MAR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK THAT SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN COMMONLY FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES COULD FALL FROM STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THUS...A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GREAT PEE DEE...LITTLE
PEE DEE...LUMBER AND CAPE FEAR RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SOME OF
THESE WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY WITH LATER FORECASTS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

DUE TO THE RECENT AND EXPECTED RAINFALL...MAJOR RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THEIR BANKS. SEE FLOOD
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY NWS WILMINGTON NC FOR SPECIFICS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY

KREITNER