Flash Flood in North Carolina, March 20, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 AM EST THU MAR 20 2003

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEDGE CONTROLLING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
DOWN TO ALMOST THE AL/GA STATE LINE. PARENT HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER
EAST TODAY...MAY BE COME SLIGHTLY PINCHED OFF WITH A SFC WAVE.
HOWEVER...WITH HEAVY RAIN FALLING INTO THE AIR MASS...WARM FRONT
WILL TAKE A SLOW BUT STEADY APPROACH TO ERODING THE WEDGE. SHORT
TERM MODELS ALL HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAKE A EXODUS THIS AFTERNOON
TO THE NORTHEAST. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE TAKEN OFF THE ETA
AS GFS HAS SOME OBVIOUS FEEDBACK ISSUES. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING
WILL LEAVE...THE ERODING EDGES OF THE WEDGE WILL ALLOW THE MOIST SFC
TO TEMPS TO WARM...INCREASING INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE FFA AT THE
CURRENT TIMING AND ZONES.

TONIGHT...H85 LIS COOL TO THE LOWEST VALUES OF THE EVENT. AFTER
MAKING A ANALYSIS OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE CONCLUDED THAT
THE EASTERN EDGE WILL HAVE A THREAT OF SVR WX. USING THE TIMING OFF
THE ETA WILL EXPECT MID LEVELS TO DRY RATHER QUICK FROM THE SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AS TS
CHANCE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER MID MORNING CWA WILL BE PAINTED WITH ONLY CHC OF SHOWERS. A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE WRITTEN TO HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS.

WITH DYING WEDGE...TEMPS WILL LIKELY PRESENT A TIGHT TEMP
GRADIENT...WILL USE ETA FIELDS FOR TEMP AND WILL REFINE WITH A MOS
COMPROMISE.

FCSTID =   16
GSP   60  53  74  50 / 100  80  40  10
AND   64  56  74  48 / 100  80  40  10
CLT   61  53  75  51 / 100  80  40  10
HKY   55  51  73  50 / 100  80  40  10
AVL   60  49  72  44 /  90  70  30  10

.GSP...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES GAZ010...GAZ017>018...GAZ026...
GAZ028>029.

NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES NCZ033>037...NCZ048>059...
NCZ062>072...NCZ082.

SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES SCZ001>014...SCZ019.

NED

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-201215-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
525 AM EST THU MAR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FLOOD WATCH (FFAGSP) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 85...COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN TORNADO ALSO EXISTS. PLEASE SEE THE
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (SPSGSP) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY...EAST OF INTERSTATE 85. PLEASE SEE THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

NED

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-201600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 AM EST THU MAR 20 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM ALABAMA AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WIND SHEAR
IN THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO REMAIN STRONG. A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING OR AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOOD PROBLEMS. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 85...LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...IF THE WARM FRONT CAN PUSH IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES
ACROSS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ELBERTON
GEORGIA TO ABBEVILLE...CLINTON...CHESTER IN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
MONROE NORTH CAROLINA. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION OR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

MOORE