Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 18, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

SURFACE FRONT STRETCHES FROM SRN PA THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGHING IS OBSERVED THROUGH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...WITH LAPS ANALSYS INDICATING BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LESS CAPPING
OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS EVIDENT. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE EARLIER
TODAY...AND RADAR INDEED SHOWS TSRA FANNING OUT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
PRESENTLY. LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSES OF
EQUIV POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB SUGGEST THAT
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY CONVECTION.

IR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG MCS OVER THE SRN TIP OF ILLINOIS AND
STEERING CURRENT SHOULD DRIVE THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. PROMINENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS INDICATED BY
THE MODELS...HOWEVER...TO SWING SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING WILL INCREASE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
ALSO SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE N. WILL THUS NEED SOLID CHC POPS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES LATE OVER THE MTNS AND THE
NRN TIER.

UPPER WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SOME DRYING IS THEN INDICATED BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHS ON SUNDAY
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. ETA INSTABILITIES BUBBLE BACK
TO 2000 TO 3000 CAPES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING EVIDENT.

HEIGHTS THEN FALL IN EARNEST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. THE GFS PAINTS
A SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO AS 850 MB JET WRAPS INTO THE AREA
COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. WILL NEED CHANCE POPS FROM PM MONDAY
THROUGH WED WITH THE BEST CHC TUE. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH DRYING AND
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION FOR THU AND FRI...BUT DRY WEATHER STILL
LOOKS GOOD.

FCSTID =   33
GSP   70  86  69  88 /  40  50  30  20
AND   70  87  69  89 /  40  50  30  20
CLT   70  85  68  88 /  40  50  30  20
HKY   68  84  66  86 /  50  50  30  20
AVL   65  83  63  84 /  50  50  30  20

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

HG

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-181145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE
AGAIN...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
419 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

330 PM     HENDERSONVILLE            NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   HENDERSON                      A COUPLE OF TREES BLOWN
                                          DOWN ON 4TH AVENUE.

328 PM     ETOWAH                    NC   HAIL DAMAGE
07/18/03   HENDERSON                      DAMAGE REPORTED DUE TO
                                          LARGE HAIL. HAIL SIZE NOT
                                          KNOWN.

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
442 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

410 PM     COLLETTSVILLE             NC   .88 INCH HAIL
07/18/03   CALDWELL                       FIRE DEPT REPORTED NICKEL
                                          SIZE HAIL IN
                                          COLLETTSVILLE.

TJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
518 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

349 PM     5 NE BREVARD              NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   TRANSYLVANIA                   EOC REPORTED TREES DOWN
                                          ON HWY 280 AND IN LITTLE
                                          RIVER.

445 PM     DYSARTSVILLE              NC   HAIL
07/18/03   MCDOWELL                       EOC STATED HAIL REPORTED
                                          IN DYSARTSVILLE BUT SIZE
                                          UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

TJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

440 PM     CHIMNEY ROCK              NC   LIGHTNING INJURY
07/18/03   RUTHERFORD                     ***INJURED 1, DEAD 0***
                                          FIRE DEPT REPORTED PERSON
                                          HIT BY LIGHTNING IN
                                          CHIMNEY ROCK.
                                          TRANSPORTED TO HOSPITAL
                                          BUT ALERT AND TALKING.

TJB