Hail and Damaging Winds in Illinois, July 18, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
357 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2003

LONG AWAITED CONVECTION FINALLY FIRING OVER CWFA AT MORNING PACKAGE
ISSUANCE AND LAST MINUTE CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS/ZONES. SURFACE FRONT
AT 08Z WAS FROM NEAR VYS EAST THROUGH AWG TO DSM. UP TO THIS
POINT...ONLY AREAS JUST UP TO EAST EDGE OF CWA IN IL HAS BEEN ACTIVE
BUT THIS IS RAPIDLY CHANGING WITH H5 SHORTWAVE SEEN MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST IA ON SATELLITE AND WEAKENING CAP. TWO MAJOR AREAS OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF FRONT IN SE IA AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION ALONG H85 FRONT THAT HAS HAD NW TO SE BAND OF ACCAS ALL
NIGHT FROM N CENTRAL IA THROUGH PUTNAM CO. SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING
IN ILX AREA AND LOOKS LIKE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP
NORTHWEST WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF FRONT IN SOUTHERN ZONES...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH EXCEPTION OF
FAR NORTHEAST... WITH UP TO LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MAINLY THIS
MORNING.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW OFF GREAT LAKES AS HIGH OVER NORTHEAST MN SINKS SOUTH OVER
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MENTION OF RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 50S. BEYOND...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES EAST. FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
PERIODS BEYOND WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN
NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH CURRENT SEVERE THREAT OVER CWFA NEEDING
WATCHING HAVE LIMITED DISCUSSION.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SHEETS

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-181100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPO IN 4TH PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
545 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING...
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE AREA FROM WATERLOO TO DUBUQUE BETWEEN
3 AND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER HAZARD TODAY WILL BE THE HIGH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL SOAR AS HIGH AS 100 TO 105 IN
THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HOT AND VERY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80 IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA. THIS STRONG INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WIND SHEAR WILL CREATE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR EXPLOSIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST IOWA...
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL TO HEAVY RAINFALL AFTER SUNSET AS THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA...AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING.

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN (ALL LOWER CASE)

SHEETS

ILZ009-015>018-180830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 755...WHICH WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL
3:00 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

THE WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE FOLLOWING
ILLINOIS COUNTIES...WHITESIDE...ROCK ISLAND...HENRY...BUREAU...AND
PUTNAM.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS TEMPORARILY SHIFTED INTO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE.