Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 18, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

SURFACE FRONT STRETCHES FROM SRN PA THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AT 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGHING IS OBSERVED THROUGH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...WITH LAPS ANALSYS INDICATING BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC. SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LESS CAPPING
OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS EVIDENT. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE EARLIER
TODAY...AND RADAR INDEED SHOWS TSRA FANNING OUT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
PRESENTLY. LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSES OF
EQUIV POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB SUGGEST THAT
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY CONVECTION.

IR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG MCS OVER THE SRN TIP OF ILLINOIS AND
STEERING CURRENT SHOULD DRIVE THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. PROMINENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS INDICATED BY
THE MODELS...HOWEVER...TO SWING SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING WILL INCREASE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
ALSO SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE N. WILL THUS NEED SOLID CHC POPS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES LATE OVER THE MTNS AND THE
NRN TIER.

UPPER WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SOME DRYING IS THEN INDICATED BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHS ON SUNDAY
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. ETA INSTABILITIES BUBBLE BACK
TO 2000 TO 3000 CAPES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING EVIDENT.

HEIGHTS THEN FALL IN EARNEST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. THE GFS PAINTS
A SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO AS 850 MB JET WRAPS INTO THE AREA
COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. WILL NEED CHANCE POPS FROM PM MONDAY
THROUGH WED WITH THE BEST CHC TUE. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH DRYING AND
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION FOR THU AND FRI...BUT DRY WEATHER STILL
LOOKS GOOD.

FCSTID =   33
GSP   70  86  69  88 /  40  50  30  20
AND   70  87  69  89 /  40  50  30  20
CLT   70  85  68  88 /  40  50  30  20
HKY   68  84  66  86 /  50  50  30  20
AVL   65  83  63  84 /  50  50  30  20

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

HG

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-181145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE
AGAIN...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
954 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1030 PM    7 N PICKENS               SC   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/17/03   PICKENS                        TABLE ROCK RANGER
                                          REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE
                                          HAIL  AND SMALL LIMBS
                                          DOWN AT HOME ON HWY 8
                                          BETWEEN TABLE ROCK AND
                                          PICKENS.

TJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
1018 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

835 PM     7 WNW CLAYTON             GA   FLASH FLOOD
07/17/03   RABUN                          COOP OBSERVER REPORTED 20
                                          FOOT SECTION OF ROAD
                                          FLOODED NEAR HWY 76 IN
                                          THE PERSIMMON COMMUNITY.

TJB

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-182100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1116 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE
TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND DRIFT INTO THE FOOTHILLS
AND UPSTATE EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BY LATE
EVENING. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY EARLY EVENING.

A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW STABLE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES LATER TONIGHT...THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

AS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/GSP

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

NED