Lightning Strike in North Carolina, August 23, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003

...DRIER CONDITIONS TO ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWED THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SSE THROUGH CENTRAL NC. SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL DRYING
NOTED MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. THE SURFACE FRONT HAD PUSHED
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF NC WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL HANGING IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TO RICHMOND AND NORFOLK.
THE FIRST CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN OVER FAR NE COASTAL AREA AND NEAR
THE NC/SC BORDER FROM LAURINBURG TO LUMBERTON.

AN OLD MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE MOVING ESE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WHERE THE FIRST CELLS WERE
NOTED. THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO CENTRAL NC AS IT MOVES
AWAY. THE ACTIVITY OVER FAR NE NC WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NC AS THE COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION DURING MAXIMUM HEATING. SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE SOUTH THIS EVENING... WITH NO POP NORTH.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY... STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. DUE TO THE LAG IN DRIER AIR TO
SPREAD INTO E-S VIRGINIA SO FAR... WILL PUSH BACK DRY AIR ADVECTION
INTO CENTRAL NC BY SEVERAL HOURS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY TRAPPING SOME MOISTURE CREATING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS INVERSION MAY LAST INTO MONDAY... BRINGING A FEW MORE CLOUDS THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THIS. THE SKIES
WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT... THEN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY...
THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL INTO THE 60S TONIGHT WITH SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS SE. FOR
SUNDAY... DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S... MAKING IT
FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE THAN IN RECENT WEEKS. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
WARMING TEMPS QUICKLY MONDAY... BUT WILL TRIM BACK TO MOSTLY 80S EXCEPT
FAYETTEVILLE AND GOLDSBORO (NEAR 90). LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 60S IN ALL AREAS... EXCEPT LOWER 60S NORTH.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RETURN FLOW FROM OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN BY TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE RIDGING
WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...PRESENCE OF WEAK PRESSURE
TROUGH...SFC HEATING AND POSSIBLE REMNANT DEBRIS FROM MCS ACTIVITY WILL
WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE-THU.  INCREASING POPS FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CONUS AND
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

.RAH...NONE.

BADGETT/LOCKLEAR

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-231200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
541 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
WHILE MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA...A STORM OR TWO
MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR
NICKELS. OTHERWISE THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY TODAY OR TONIGHT.