Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 23, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...FCST NUMBERS BELOW
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
318 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME
COOLER TEMPS AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL(LATE NEXT WEEK).

TNGHT
MODIFIED SNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SFC-850MB THETA E AXIS IS
SITUATED FROM ARK CITY NORTHWARD TO KSLN. THE COMBINATION OF
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BEING REACHED ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE AT THE SFC
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO STORMS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS ALONG WEST OF THIS
THETA E AXIS. THE IN-HOUSE ETA MODEL SHOWS SOME ISOLD CONVECTION
TRYING TO DEVELOP AGAIN AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EVENING
HRS. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

SUN-MON
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE THETA E AXIS IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY...HOWEVER STILL COULD SEE A RENEGADE STORM
OR TWO DEVELOP. DUE TO THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE WILL KEEP DRY FCST
IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SIZZLE ACROSS THE CWA AND SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

TUES
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FRNT STALLING OUT IN NEBR WAS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY AND IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. SO WILL INCH TEMPS UP A BIT
THIS PERIOD AND KEEP THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT GOING.

EXTENDED: WED-SAT
WHEN WILL THE COOLER AIR FINALLY REACH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IS THE
BIG QUESTION...AS UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS STRANGLE HOLD OVER THE
CENTRL PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRNT TOO FAR
SOUTH AND ONCE AGAIN THIS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS SOUTHWARD FRNTL
ADVANCE. WILL REVERT BACK TO WARMER SIDE OF FENCE AND RAISE TEMPS UP
SOME FOR WED/THUR. THESE VALUES COULD BE RAISED EVEN MORE BY LATER
SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY IF FRNT REMAINS NORTH OF CWA WHICH APPEARS TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE ONLY THING THAT COULD
PUSH THIS FRNT INTO AND POSSIBLY THRU OUR CWA WOULD BE IF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRNT IN NEBR. IF THAT CONVECTION
DOESNT PANOUT THEN ITS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THE TRIPLE DIGIT STREAK
COULD CONTINUE WITH SFC FRNT REMAINING TO OUR NORTH.

THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FINALLY MAKE A MAJOR
CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD DISLODGE THE STRANGLE HOLD OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THUS FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE. THEN TAKE
UP RESIDENCE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE US IN
A NW FLOW REGIME ALOFT COME THUR NGHT...WHICH COULD FINALLY PUSH A
FRNT SOUTHWARD LATE THURS INTO FRI. SO WILL INTRO POPS FOR THAT TIME
FRAME AS WELL.

FCSTID = 15/JAKUB
ICT   74 103  74 104 /  20  10  10   5
HUT   74 104  73 105 /  20  10  10   5
EWK   73 104  74 104 /  20  10  10   5
EQA   73 103  74 104 /  20  10  10   5
WLD   74 103  75 104 /  20  10  10   5
RSL   73 104  71 105 /  10   5   5   5
GBD   74 104  72 105 /  10   5   5   5
SLN   74 106  74 107 /  10  10  10   5
MPR   73 104  74 104 /  20  10  10   5
CFV   73 103  75 102 /  10   5   5   5
CNU   72 103  73 102 /  10   5   5   5
K88   72 103  73 102 /  10   5   5   5
.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDICES OF 103 TO 108 ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM
REGIONWIDE.  IN ADDITION, A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST
OF I-35.  IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, THEY MAY BE SEVERE WITH
BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND UP TO DIME SIZED HAIL.  THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED, SO SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. STORMS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WEST OF EMPORIA, TO WICHITA TO KINGMAN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

HOWERTON