Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in New York, August 16, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

.DISC...SOME DEGREE OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TDY...THEN A FINE DRY
WEEK WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW.

.SHORT TERM...FIRST CDFNT HAS MOVED S OF REGION TO ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...LONG ISLAND...WASHINGTON DC METRO AND WEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.  A SECONDARY FRONT...WELL DEFINED IN TD FIELDS IS FM N
VT ACROSS S ADRNDCKS AND BEHIND IT TD ARE IN L-M50S. MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE...OVER CAPE CD OR OVER MD. HUGE 1020 SFC HI
OVER MUCH OF ONTARIO.

WHILE AT SFC THIS PATTERN IS RATHER STRAIGHT FORWARD ITS ALOFT THE
SUBTLETIES ARE OF SOME CONCERN TODAY. 500 HPA SHRT WV DIGGING ACRS
MI WHILE BROAD TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST THIRD OF US.
WITH FRONT STALLING NOT FAR OFFSHORE...JUST SOUTH OF CURRENT
POSITION...A MODERATE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE ALONG THE CST TDY. ID
BE MUCH MORE CONCERNED IF WE HAD THIS PATTERN IN JAN...BUT IN ANY
CASE TDY A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL PROPAGATE NE ALONG THIS CSTL
FRONTAL ZONE...AND FROM ALL INDICATIONS JUST AT ARMS LENGTH TO OUR
EAST. REGARDLESS ETA MDL SNDINGS ALL SHOW RH 0F 70% IN MUCH OF LAYER
BLW 9K FT TDY. ADD SOME COOLING TO MID LEVELS...SOME SUN AND WE
PROBABLY HAVE SCT-BKN CU AROUND TDY. THE GFS IS DRYING AND THIS
EFFECT IS MUCH WEAKER...AND HENCE SUNNIER.

WHILE THE PAST FEW DAYS THE ETA HAS HANDLED THE TIMING AND STRUCTURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...AT 06Z THE GFS HAS THE FRNTL LOCATION AND
CONVECTION LOCATIONS MUCH MORE EXACTLY THAN THE ETA. THE ETA IS
TRYING TO KEEP LLVL MOISTER AND CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF S TIER OF NY
THRU TDY.  WHILE THE MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON FRNTL POSITION AND
LOCATION OF MID LEVEL TROF THEY KINDA GO THEIR OWN WAYS ON MOISTURE
PROFILE...AND QPF TDY. THE ETA PRODUCES CONVECTIVE (PARAMETERIZATION
PCPN) ACROSS SE ZONES...WHILE THE GFS HAS A CONVECTIVE RESPONSE
ACROSS THE S AND E ZONES THIS AFTN. GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY THINK
BOTH ARE OVER DONE...AND WL CARRY A CHC PCPN IN FAR SE OTHERWISE DRY
TDY. IN ADDITION WHILE SCT-BKN CU IS LKLY WL STAY WITH PS ACROSS THE
FCA TDY.

.LONGER TERM...BY SUN NT SFC HIGH IS ELONGATED ACROSS MOST OF
ONTARIO AND S QUEBEC. SFC FRONT HAS SHIFT WELL OFF SHORE AND IS
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. SOME CLOUDS LINGER SUN NT...BUT BY MONDAY SFC
HI HAS SHIFTED S TO COVER NORTHEAST QUARTER OF USA...AND RETURN FLOW
AROUND IT IS PUMPING VERY HOT AMASS INTO GREAT PLAINS AND INTO
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IT DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY...AND HOT AMASS IS
STREAMING ACROSS ONTARIO THEN INTO NEW YORK AND N NEW ENG. BY
TUESDAY WHAT WAS THE CANADIAN HIGH HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH AND HAS BECOME ITS WESTWARD EXTENSION. MONDAY WILL BE
BRIGHT..SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE...TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BUILD WITH 90S LIKELY WED & THU.

.HYDROLOGIC STATUS...
OTHER THAN A SCT -SHRA TDY...WILL BE DRY INTO FRI. STREAMS/RIVERS
WILL SLOWLY RECEDE. NO HYDRO ISSUES THIS WEEK.

.ALY...NONE.

SNYDER

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>
084-VTZ013>015-171045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MAY
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SNYDER