Flash Flood in North Carolina, August 16 to 17, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
630 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

NEW AREA OF CONVECTION HAS SINCE FIRED IN I-85 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SPA
AND CLT. WILL AMEND ZONES TO BUMP POPS ACROSS SC PIEDMONT...AND NW
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WHERE EVEN LARGER CONVECTIVE PRECIP AREA WILL
EDGE PAST JUST TO THE NE.

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

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...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 308 AM...
DEALING WITH CONVECTION AT THIS EARLY HOUR...MAINLY ACROSS NC...
DEVELOPING IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH REMAINING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ABOVE 1500 J/KG...UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VORT DROPPING
DOWN FROM OH VALLEY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AS THIS SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORT WAVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE ENUF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY TO FIRE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POP WHICH SEEMS TOO HIGH ACROSS
ALL BUT THE NORTH...WHERE IT MIGHT BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG REASON.

MODELS SHOW MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NW BY
LATE TONIGHT...THUS WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NRN ZONES
ALL NIGHT IN CASE MORE CONVECTION CREEPS IN. AS THIS SHORT WAVE
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE A SAFE BET WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR
A SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM THE NORTH IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO REINTRODUCE A CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST OUT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE LARGELY UNCHANGED.

FCSTID =   10
GSP   87  71  88  69 /  40  40  40  40
AND   88  71  88  70 /  40  40  40  40
CLT   87  71  88  69 /  40  40  40  40
HKY   85  69  87  68 /  40  40  40  40
AVL   83  65  84  64 /  40  40  40  40

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GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
610 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR A
BRIEF TIME. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAIN IN THE
LAST FEW WEEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE IN THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY.

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