Flood in New Jersey, November 20 to 21, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 PM EST THU NOV 20 2003

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS IT HEADS UP
INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SC/CU FIELD CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT AND SHRINK THIS AFTERNOON AS
FURTHER DRYING TAKES PLACE. BRISK WINDS, DUE TO CAA AND DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT, WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
DUE TO THE COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. SOME SPRINKLES
OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE POCONOS, HOWEVER ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES
SNEAKING IN WELL UP NORTH WILL END BY DARK.

CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED. THE
12Z GFS AND ETA CONTINUE TO PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPS AS WINDS DROP OFF AND SKIES CLEAR. SOME WAA WILL OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT AS MILDER AIR AT 850MB STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRI AS A DRY AIRMASS RESIDES. 850MB
TEMPS OF +7 TO +11C WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S UP
NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. NOT A BAD DAY OVERALL WITH LESS
WIND COMPARED TO TODAY. SOME COOLING HOWEVER IS NOTED AT THE 850MB
LEVEL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WEAK BOUNDARY-LIKE FEATURE TRIES TO SLIP
DOWN A BIT FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA SAT THEREFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT. NO REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS AS AIRMASS
REMAINS DRY. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH THIS, ALTHOUGH AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS POSSIBLE.

BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH SAT AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, MILD TEMPS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB
BACK TO +7 TO +11C. MODELS ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF WARMER/SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS LIFT AND LIGHT QPF REMAINS UP
INTO NY STATE. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SUN AS HIGH MOVES EAST AND
STORM ACROSS THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN A MILD DAY ON SUN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MON AND TUES: STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MON
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. THE 12Z
GFS HAS THIS COLD FRONT VERY WELL DEFINED AS IN MOVES EAST INTO OUR
CWA MON EVENING. VERY IMPRESSIVE 850MB TEMP GRADIENT AS VERY COLD
AIRMASS POISED BEHIND BOUNDARY. WILL CHC SHOWERS MON AS FRONT
APPROACHES. COULD BE SOME THUNDER WITH THIS POTENT FRONT, BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE ATTM. FRONT MOVES EAST MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING
WITH COLDER AND BRISK CONDITIONS BUILDING IN. OF COURSE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE MON-TUE
PERIOD. ATTM THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO MOVE WEST AND NORTH
OF OUR AREA AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

WED AND THURS: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
CHILLY CONDITIONS. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO APPROACH WED NIGHT
INTO THURS WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS.

HYDRO: FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MILLSTONE RIVER AT BLACKWELLS
MILLS. A SPECIAL RIVER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER, AS A SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANKS RISE HAS BEEN
MOVING DOWN THE MAIN STEM OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER. MANY OTHER CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE NEAR BANKFULL BUT WILL CREST TONIGHT AND FRI. THE
LARGER RIVERS SHOULD CREST WITHIN THEIR BANKS FRI NIGHT/SAT.

FYI: RAIN EVENT YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT PRODUCED A SOLID 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL DAILY RECORD RAINFALL RECORDS WERE SET
YESTERDAY. REFER TO THE RECORD EVENT REPORTS THAT WERE ISSUED THIS
MORNING FOR MORE INFO.

HAVE A GOOD ONE

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR COAST/DE BAY, MAINLY FOR THIS EVE.

GORSE

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-201300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
450 AM EST THU NOV 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AND
NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MINOR FLOODING THAT WAS OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT WILL END EARLY IN THE MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RNS