High Wind in New Jersey, November 13, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
230 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FCST CONCERN THIS GO AROUND IS WITH WINDS TODAY.
OVERALL...GOING FCST HAS SITUATION WELL IN HAND WITH HI WIND WARNING
ALREADY POSTED. NEW MODEL DATA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS NO NEW
REVELATIONS AS COMAPRED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. VIEWING THIS
DATA IN AWIPS/BUFKIT SHOWS STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS DEVELPOING
THIS AM BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT...LASTING WELL INTO TONITE.

CONVECTIVE PCPN ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT HAVING HARD TIME STAYING
TOGETHER WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WHATEVER PCPN
MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS AM WILL BE FORCED RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT DUE TO GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE. EXPECT A FEW VERY BRIEF
(10-15 MIN?) SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY 12Z WITH FROPA AND
THATS IT. REGIONAL VWPS NOT TOO TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS
WINDS GO IN THE LOWEST 1-3 KFT...AS COMPARED TO SIMILAR EVENTS WEVE
HAD IN PAST FEW MONTHS WITH THESE STRONG SYNOP SYSTEMS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIMITED CONVECTION...NOT WORRIED ABOUT DAMAGING WINDS
WITH FROPA EARLY THIS AM. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
CLOSELY.

FRONT BLOWS THROUGH ALL PARTS OF CWA BY 12Z. THIS OPENS THE
FLOODGATES FOR CAA AND STRONG WINDS TODAY AS 975 LOW BARRELLS EWD
ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND. BEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS BEST MIXING OCCURS. LOOKS LIKE WELL GO DRY
ADIABATIC TO H85 THIS AFTN...IF NOT AS HIGH AS 800 MB. THIS GIVES US
RATHER OPTIMUM MIXING CONDS.

MODELS GENLY AGREE THAT WINDS AT H85 WILL BE IN THE 55-65KT RANGE
COME THIS AFTN. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS THIS IS WHAT IS OCCURING
IN UPSTREAM RAOBS AND VWPS. CURRENTLY THINKING THAT WELL MIX DOWN
35G50 KT (40G58 MPH) WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA HERE IS FOR AN HOUR OR MORE OF 40 MPH SUSTANINED
WINDS OR GUSTS 58 MPH OR OVER FOR ANY DURATION OF TIME. MAY JUST GET
BOTH (ESP HIGHER ELEVS AND ON NYC STREETS WHERE FUNNELING BETWEEN
BUILDINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR). THUS...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS UP
ALL ZONES. WILL KEEP WARNING IN EFFECT ALL DAY...EVEN THOUGH
CRITERIA WL BE MET IN THE AFTN. JUST WANT PUBLIC TO KNOW IT WILL BE
WINDY TODAY. WELL LIKELY MEET WIND ADV CRIT BY MID AM...AND HWW
CRIT IN THE AFTN. BUT, TO LIMIT CONFUSION AND TO PROVIDE FOLKS WITH
A HEADS UP BEFORE THEY HEAD OUT THE DOOR THIS AM...WL JUST GO WITH
HWW ALL DAY.

AS FAR AS PCPN CHANCES TODAY...LOW CHC POPS EARLY THIS AM ALONG
FRONT...THEN 20/30 PCT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR INSTAB DRIVEN
WRAP-AROUND AS THETA SFCS RISE IN RESPONSE TO UPR COLD POCKET
SLIDING OVERHEAD. SHOULD BE COLD ENUF VERY LATE AFTN AND EVE FOR
SOME -SHSN INLAND...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW FLAKES AFTER SUNSET
ALONG THE COAST. VERY GOOD DOWNSLOPE WINDS USUALLY INHIBIT ANY PCPN
DOWN TO THE COAST...AND THIS TIME WL LIKELY BE NO EXCEPTION.

SKY COVER DESERVES M/CLOUDY TODAY. HOWEVER THINK THERE WILL BE A
TIME BEHIND FRONT AND IN DRY SLOT WHERE SKIES ARE P-M/SUNNY. SKIES
WILL CLOUD UP (ESPECIALLY INLAND) AGAIN BY EARLY AFTN.

FRIDAY WL STILL BE RATHER BRREZY...BUT NOTHING LIKE TODAY. MAY
ACTUALLY STILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY (PERHAPS EVEN AN EXTENSION OF
THE WARNING) AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND AN ADVISORY INTO A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY AS GRAD STILL STRONG AND MIXING STILL GOOD.
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO GET A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS.

NO BIG CHANGES WITH THE REST OF THE FCST. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS HALFWAY
DECENT AS SFC RIDGING STAYS OVERHEAD. MAY BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WORKING INTO THE PICTURE, HOWEVER. NECT CHC OF PRECIP WL BE MID NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...A FEW TAFS STILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. CIGS
AND VIS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY GUST TO ABOVE 30 KT WITH THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY TO ABOVE 40 KT AND AT TIMES NEAR
50 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. CIGS/VIS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT
WILL STILL BE GALE FORCE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA...FINALLY RELAXING
GRADIENT ENOUGH TO BRING WINDS AND SEA BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SOME LOW
WATER PROBLEMS POSSIBLE AT LOW TIDE FROM TONIGHT ONWARD WITH TIDAL
DEPARTURES NEARING 3 FT BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
COULD CAUSE MINOR WASHOVERS AT HIGH TIDE THU AND FRI FOR WEST-FACING
SHORES OF THE GREAT SOUTH BAY IN SUFFOLK COUNTY...IN SHIRLEY AND
ALSO POSSIBLY NEAR WESTHAMPTON AND SHINNECOCK HILLS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO PROBLEMS DURING THE FCST PERIOD AS NO HVY RAIN IS
FCST.
&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY TIL MIDNIGHT...CTZ005>012.
NJ...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY TIL MIDNIGHT...NJZ002>006-011.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY TIL MIDNIGHT...NYZ067>081.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ALL WATERS.

MLE/EKH

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-141100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
530 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN OVER OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...DAMAGING HIGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE NYCNPWOKX
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG FRIDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
THURSDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY. STAY TUNED FOR
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.