Damaging Wind in New Jersey, August 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
250 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOW COVERING THE FCST AREA...EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL BE TRIGGERS FOR PCPN. WHEN THEY MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE HEATING OF THE DAY WILL
ALLOW ANY DVLPG PCPN TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THEN WHEN THE SAME
SITUATION HAPPENS AT NIGHT.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FCST IS TIMING THE SHORT WAVES. THE ETA
AND AVN HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. THEREFORE...I
WILL ONLY TRY TO TIME THE PCPN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND EMPHASIZE THE
DIURNAL NATURE OF THE PCPN. POPS WILL GENERALLY REFLECT GUIDANCE.

TO ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES...THANKS FOR YOUR COOR.

LONG RANGE...THE PATTERN CONTINUES. HOWEVER...BY TUE...THE UPPER
TROUGH LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN OUT ENOUGH TO LEAVE PCPN OUT FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CNVCTN REMAINS PSBL.

FCSTID =    9
MPO   66  77  64  80 /  80  50  40  40
ABE   68  83  65  85 /  70  60  50  40
RDG   68  83  65  85 /  70  50  50  40
PHL   70  85  72  87 /  50  50  50  40
12N   69  81  66  84 /  80  60  60  50
SMQ   68  84  67  86 /  70  60  70  40
TTN   69  86  70  86 /  60  60  60  40
MIV   69  85  70  87 /  40  50  50  40
ACY   72  82  72  85 /  40  60  60  40
ILG   70  85  72  87 /  40  50  50  40
DOV   70  85  71  87 /  40  40  40  40
GED   71  86  71  87 /  50  40  40  40
ESN   71  84  72  87 /  40  30  30  40

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONES NJZ001...NJZ007>008.
PA...FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONES PAZ054>055...PAZ061>062.
MARINE...NONE (SCA DISCONTINUED).

RNS

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-051115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
420 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AND
NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY...THE POCONO
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
BIGGEST THREATS ARE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LARGE HAIL ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS BELOW 45 MPH CAN BRING DOWN SOME TREES WITH THE WET GROUND.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS EXISTS
EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WN

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-051700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1120 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE DELMARVA...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS. ANY
LIGHTNING IS POTENTIALLY DEADLY...AND THE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MPD

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-051800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1225 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE DELMARVA...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...
WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND THE NORTHERN MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS. ANY LIGHTNING IS
POTENTIALLY DEADLY...AND THE DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MPD

DEZ001-MDZ008-PAZ060-067-051915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
144 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NORTHEAST MARYLAND...

AT 140 PM RADAR WAS TRACKING AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM OVER
HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND. THIS STORM HAS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 15 MINUTES AND WAS MOVING TO THE
NORTH AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

ON ITS PRESENT MOVEMENT...THE THUNDERSTORM WILL SKIRT THE WESTERN
BORDER OF CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PART OF
CHESTER COUNTY.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

EBERWINE