Heavy Snow in Nevada, May 8 to 9, 2003

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
305 PM PDT THU MAY 8 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND
SNOW LEVELS NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A
BREAK ON THE UNSETTLED PATTERN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...UPR LOW CONTINUES DOWN WEST COAST WITH INITIAL VORT
LOBE ENTERING CNTRL NV ATTM AND TRAILING VORT ON BACK SIDE OF LOW
CENTER OFF CA/OR COAST. BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH ALL BUT FAR ERN CWA
AND EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH KENV BU 03Z WITH THE USUAL POST
FRONTAL LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. KLRX 88D SHOWS GOOD PRECIP COVG
THIS AFTERNOON ALL ZONES. BEST LLVL CONV THROUGH WHITE PINE COUNTY
ATTM AS FRONT AND SFC LOW SAGS INTO UT THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO
CONTINUE SN ADV FOR EXTREME SE CWA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
PRECIP DIMINISHES TO SCT OVERNIGHT. WILL LET SN ADV EXPIRE IN RUBY
MTNS WITH SHSN CONTINUING OVER NIGHT...BUT EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW
ADV CRITERIA. 5H LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN NV TONIGHT W/ GFS NOW ONLY
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ETA. BOTH MODELS BRING SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND
PRECIP TO NW ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH ETA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT.
WITH SFC LOW IN SRN ID AND 7H LOW IN NRN NV AND LLVL CONV CONTINUING
IN THE NORTH AND WEST MODELS AGREE ON QPF AMOUNTS OF NEAR .50
ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND NRN ELKO CNTY THROUGH FRI MORNING. NWLY FLOW AT
7H WILL ALSO PROVIDE GOOD UPSLOPE IN SANTA ROSA JARBIDGE AND
INDEPENDENCE MTNS SO WILL ISSUE SN ADV FOR ZONES 30 AND 31 TONIGHT
WITH SN LVLS NEAR 5500 FT.

FRI...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT AND SHIFTS EWD AS WEAK
S/WV RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ENTERS NW NV. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FOR SCT SHOWERS...LIKELY NORTH WITH
CONTINUED WRAP AROUND PRECIP. SN LVLS WILL RISE ABV THE LOWEST VALLEY
FLOORS AS COLD CORE SHIFTS EAST AND 7H TEMPS RISE TO NR -5C.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NEXT S/WV AND SHEARING VORT LOBE MOVE ONSHORE
FRI NIGHT AND ACROSS NV SAT WITH GFS STILL A BIT FASTER THAN ETA.
ALSO AN 80 KT UPR JET S OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
SAT. WILL GO WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES THIS PERIOD...HIGHEST NE WITH
MOST FAVORABLE JET SUPPORT.

FRI NIGHT...THIS VORT FEATURE LIFTS OUT TO TH NE FOLLOWED BY WEAK
RIDGING ON SUN. WILL LEAVE SCHC POPS SAT NIGHT...MAINLY FOR EVENING
ACTIVITY AND KEEP SUN DRY. SN LVLS WILL AGAIN RISE ABV LOWEST
VALLEYS SAT AS 7H TEMPS REMAIN NR -5C. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
SUN AT 5H HTS RISE TO NR 570 DM AND 7H TEMPS RECOVER TO ABV ZERO
IN SRN ZONES.

.EXTENDED...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BROAD
FLAT RIDGING OVER NEVADA MONDAY AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WEST
COAST. MRF A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROF INTO
WEST COAST TUESDAY. UK DROPS LOW SOUTH WHILE ECMWF AND MRF
CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER TROUGH INTO NEVADA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED. MONDAY
AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. S/WV PUSHES INTO FA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS. BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTN AS S/WV MOVES EAST. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS.

.EKO...SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR NVZ030-031 TONIGHT INTO
       FRIDAY MORNING.
       SNOW ADVISORY FOR NVZ035 THROUGH THIS EVENING

HOENISCH/CLAYCOMB

NVZ030>037-091300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
551 AM PDT THU MAY 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA

.DAY ONE...

A STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
TODAY FOR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE. A SNOW
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR WHITE PINE
COUNTY AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. FOR FURTHER DETAILS REFER TO AWIPS
ID RNOWSWLKN OR WMO HEADER WWUS75 KLKN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN...SNOW AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

SEDLOCK