Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 8, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
205 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX OUTBREAK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

ALL PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFCANT SVR WX OUTBREAK THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CEN AND SRN KS.  EARLIER UPDATE TALKED ABOUT LOTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FOR
POSSIBLE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.  SO WILL NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON SHORT
WITH PDS TOR BOXES ALREADY ISSUED.

SO WILL SPEND MOST OF THIS DISCUSSION TALKING ABOUT LATER PERIODS.

BY 06Z FRI, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHUD BE EXITING THE AREA AND MOVING
INTO WESTERN MO, WHO NEEDLESS TO SAY DOENT NEED ANY MORE SVR WX.

FOR FRI: SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY 18Z FRI WITH TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH
OF SRN KS. CWA WL BE ABLE TO DRY OUT FRI AS MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. WHATS INTERESTING IS THAT THE REALLY RICH
GULF MOISTURE NEVER GETS SHUNTED SOUTH, AND JUST LINGERS OVER SE MO.
THIS WL COME INTO PLAY AS NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS CWA SAT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WL INCREASE FRI NGHT. WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
ELEVATED TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS, WHERE GREATER
MOISTURE WL BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.

SAT: STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST, AS MAIN
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OVER THE REGION. A GREATER THAN 100KT UPPER JET
WL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS RUNS SHOW SFC LOW SITUATED A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.  BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED OVER SERN KS. SOUND FAMILIAR.  THIS
AREA AGAIN WILL BE IN THE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR WX POTENTIAL ON
SAT.

SUN-WED:
ECM AND GFS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH CAA MOVING INTO THE
AREA FOR SUN THROUGH TUES AS HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
ELAVATED CONVECTION CHS AGAIN INCREASE LATE TUES NIGHT AS MOISTURE
RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES AREA. LOW PRESS AREA TRACKS
ACROSS OK ON WED...SO WILL KEEP SHRA CHCS GOING FOR WED.  WILL END
SHRA/TSRA CHCS EARLY THU AS SFC RIDGE SNEAKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NRN PLAINS.

FCSTID =   22 / KETCHAM
ICT   57  82  62  74 /  40  10  30  30
HUT   56  81  59  73 /  30  10  30  30
EWK   56  82  62  74 /  40  10  30  30
EQA   57  82  64  76 /  50  10  30  30
WLD   61  84  65  79 /  40  10  40  30
RSL   52  80  56  65 /  30  10  20  30
GBD   54  81  56  66 /  30  10  20  30
SLN   55  81  60  72 /  30  10  30  30
MPR   56  82  62  74 /  40  10  30  30
CFV   65  85  68  82 /  60  10  40  40
CNU   63  83  67  81 /  60  10  40  40
K88   63  84  67  81 /  60  10  40  40

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KETCHAM

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-091200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINCOLN, HARPER
COUNTY LINE.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL, WITH A COUPLE
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.

STORMS MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM ALONG THE DRYLINE...THEN
MOVE EAST FROM THERE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BE SITUATED GENERALLY ALONG OR SLIGHTLY JUST WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL. WIND PROFILES WILL PROMOTE
ROTATING SUPERCELLS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE
BEST CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT A COUPLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE TURNPIKE AND INTERSTATE 135. THE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER WAVE KICKS OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS,
AND IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM