Hail in Nebraska, November 17, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
240 PM CST MON NOV 17 2003

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

FIRST BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDS AND A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS.  HOWEVER THIS
IS CHANGING THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF SURFACE
DATA...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR SURGING
NORTH INTO THE CWA.  LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1500 J/KG CAPES JUST SOUTH
OF THE KS/NE BORDER WITH AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG EXTENDING THROUGH
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  SPCS ANALYSES ALSO INDICATE HIGH SHEAR VALUES
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA.  INCREASING LAPSE RATES WERE NOTED AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOWED CU FIELD BECOMING MORE ROBUST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA...AND
RADAR WAS HINTING AT LIGHT RETURNS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP NEAR KBIE.
EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
QUITE RAPIDLY.  GREATEST SEVERE THREAT...HAIL AND WIND...WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAREST CONVERGING SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS.

MOST OF NEBRASKA WILL SEE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ENDING JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION IN IOWA THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILD AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT WITH
NOTICEABLE COOLING COMING LATE TONIGHT IN THE EAST.  PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY WILL OFFSET GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PUSH TEMPS
BACK ABOVE NORMAL.  LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S.

SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.  HAVE PUSHED TEMPS TO NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE 70 FOR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS OF THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.  STILL MILD FRIDAY AS WELL.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH ADVERTISED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LOW
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  MOST MODEL ARE NOW POINTING TO A CLOSED
LOW TO MEANDER INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS
ON THE TRACK.  WHATEVER THE CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
BROUGHT IN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GOING
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS THINKING THE CLOSED
LOW WILL BE SLOWER AND A BIT DEEPER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IA...NONE
.NE...NONE

&&

DERGAN

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-172345-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1242 PM CST MON NOV 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HENDERSON IOWA TO BEATRICE NEBRASKA. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AMPLE GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
SWEEP AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE AREAS OF CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE LOCATION
OR INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN OR NEAR THE OUTLOOK AREA
LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
NEBRASKA OR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA.

DEE