Flood in Montana, March 17 to 20, 2003

Name: Flood in Montana, March 17 to 20, 2003
Start: 2003-03-17T13:45
End: 2003-03-20T15:00
Location: Montana

March 17 to 20, 2003 · NWS GGW · 1 event in 1 county or zone

8 feet during the afternoon of the March 18th which was 5 feet above flood stage. The flooding was due to rapid snowmelt.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GGW wrote it up.

The Big Muddy Creek near Antelope crested at 16.8 feet during the afternoon of the March 18th which was 5 feet above flood stage. The flooding was due to rapid snowmelt.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 17, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 17, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 15 minutes before

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
930 AM MST MON MAR 17 2003

STEADY RAIN IN EASTERN ZONES NOT MOVING MUCH...LINED UP WITH
STATIONARY FRONT. SOME WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS AS ONE VORTICITY CENTER
MOVES NORTH OUT OF AREA...BUT MODELS KEEP HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
GOOD UPWARD MOTION WITH FRONT NOT MOVING MUCH...SO NOT NOT MUCH
CHANGE TODAY. LITTLE FURTHER COOLING UNTIL TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON SNOW MENTION UNTIL EVENING. MEANWHILE WESTERN ZONES PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WILL NEED TO DELAY CHANCE POPS. SIMONSEN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MAJOR LATE WINTER STORM COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH AN 80+ KT JET AT 250H
SHOULD FINALLY BE THE KICKER TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT THE SFC LOW WILL BE IN NORTHEAST TX OR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
A 500H RIDGE AND SFC PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TAPER OFF THE POPS
BY THURSDAY MORNING.  IF THE STORM DOES NOT LIFT OUT AS QUICKLY AS
MODELS INDICATE COULD HAVE TO EXTEND POPS AT A LATER TIME INTO
THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WEST COAST WILL BE THE KICKER.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY (AND SUNNY) DAY WITH SFC HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD.  WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS BY A GOOD 15
DEGREES AS EXTENSIVE SNOWCOVER IS A GOOD BET.  RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE
OFF TO OUR EAST SLOWLY FRIDAY.  WINDS LOOK LIGHT AND CONDITIONS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR MIXING SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR OR ONLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES MILDER THAN THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WELL BELOW GUIDANCE.

FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND AND GFS TRACKS A LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT STILL KEEP ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTED
SNOWCOVER.  WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY AT THIS POINT AS BEST THREAT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT. HYDRO PROBLEMS COULD
DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND EVEN WITH GRADUAL MELTING AS THE GROUND IS
ALREADY SATURATED. CB

KGGW RSS /044 029/031 022/031 8248997
     UBBE 025/036 020/038 024/043 025/045 027/ 99000000000

KGDV RSS /044 029/032 024/032 82++++9
     BBBE 024/038 019/038 023/043 024/045 026/ 99400000000

.GGW...FLOOD WARNING TODAY FOR YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN DAWSON...
       PRAIRIE...AND RICHLAND COUNTIES.

       WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
       017>020-022>027-061-062.

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 17, 5:55 AM MST, 7 hours 50 minutes before

MTZ016>027-059>062-181300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
555 AM MST MON MAR 17 2003

.DAY ONE...

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN
RICHLAND... DAWSON AND PRAIRIE COUNTIES FOR TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO
GTFFLSGGW OR WGUS85 KGGW FOR DETAILS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES
WHERE THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW. RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. PLEASE SEE
GTFWSWGGW OR WWUS45 KGGW FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM
COUNTIES WHERE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER.  SNOW WILL FALL
HEAVILY AT TIMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...WITH A TOTAL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE
ROUTE... OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

BOGEL

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Sheridan

When: March 17, 1:45 PM MST to March 20, 3:00 PM MST
Where: Sheridan forecast zone
Reported by: OTHER FEDERAL AGENCY
Coordinates: 48.721, -104.505 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Montana in 2003 Every state in 2003 This day in weather history Warnings in Montana, March 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5349277.