High Wind in Montana, January 3, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
841 PM MST FRI JAN 3 2003

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

UPDATE TO ZFP OUT SHORTLY...WIND IS THE BIG STORY THIS EVENING AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. WINDS HAVE
DIED DOWN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EAST...BUT AS BULK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND COLD AIR ALOFT PUSH INTO EASTERN ZONES...ALONG
WITH 55 KTS AT 850MB...ANTICIPATE WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE BY MORNING. IN THE WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP IN THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AS 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS IN
HELPING TO RE-INITIATE GAP FLOW CONDITIONS IN LIVINGSTON VICINITY
TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. FOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS IN THE EAST AS WINDS WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE
WELL MIXED. BAKER DROPPED TO 40 DEGREES BY 6 PM...BUT HAS RISEN TO 42
DEGREES AS WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP THERE. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED CLOUDS A BIT AS DRY
SLOT OVER THE AREA AND SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE MOISTURE UPSTREAM...SO
WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
A VERY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY AND INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY TUESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL APPROACH
580DAM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S BOTH DAYS. AS A
RESULT...I WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME AN ARCTIC FRONT
TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT LOOKED MORE IMPRESSIVE
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...TODAYS MODEL RUN DOES NOT BRING THE COLD AIR
THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT ALSO LOOKS AS IF THE COLDEST
AIR WILL REMAIN OUT IN THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR SLICES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS ALSO
THE TIME WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE
FLOW ALOFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. I WILL STILL LEAVE 30 POPS IN
FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT AND ONLY ADJUST
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND UKMET ARE MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE ODD SOLUTION. LATEST GFS IS QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN AS BY THURSDAY MORNING IT PLACES A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. THIS LOW DID NOT EXIST
WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN. THE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO
THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...IT WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME DECENT SNOWS
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...I WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT MORE IN LINE WITH NORMALS AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 30S. HOOLEY

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/052 034/048 034/053 036/056 033/041 014/030 013/038
    00/E    30/E    00/B    00/B    03/W    30/E    00/E
LVM 036/047 035/046 033/051 037/054 031/039 013/028 014/035
    00/N    30/E    00/B    00/B    03/J    33/J    33/J
HDN 035/053 033/047 032/055 035/057 031/041 013/029 011/040
    00/E    30/E    00/B    00/B    03/J    30/E    00/E
MLS 034/047 029/044 023/049 026/057 027/039 009/024 007/028
    00/B    32/J    00/B    00/B    03/J    30/B    00/B
4BQ 033/048 029/046 026/050 026/056 028/043 012/025 007/033
    00/B    32/J    00/B    00/B    03/J    30/E    00/B
BHK 033/044 026/042 021/046 023/050 024/038 006/018 003/029
    00/B    32/J    20/B    00/B    03/J    30/B    00/B
SHR 030/052 030/048 028/053 030/055 028/043 014/028 011/039
    00/E    30/E    00/B    00/B    03/W    33/J    33/J

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

MTZ028>042-056>058-WYZ098-099-041100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT...CORRECTED
435 PM MST FRI JAN 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. REFER TO GTFZFPBYZ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN OVER THE AREA MAY
COME TO AN END MID WEEK. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH HIGHS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S BY THURSDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WCJIN-WYNW-WYNE