High Wind in Montana, January 29, 2003

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 PM MST WED JAN 29 2003

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR
TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE ON TUE. ETA FORECASTS QPF VALUES
OVERNIGHT AROUND A HALF INCH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO STAY BELOW HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER
MOUNTAIN TOPS. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE BUT EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO GENERALLY STAY BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIDA. PATTERN REPEATS
ITSELF THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS TIME MAIN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL
STAY A LITTLE FARTHER N...NEAR THE CAN BORDER. QPF OVER THE WRN
MOUNTAINS IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF TONIGHT/THU...POSSIBLY A LITTLE
MORE. MID LEVEL FLOW AGAIN INCREASES AND IS ACTUALLY STRONGER THAN
THAT OF TONIGHT/FRI. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH BUT
SINCE ITS LATE IN THE 3RD AND THE 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT IS ALSO NOT OF THE QUESTION FOR THU NIGHT/FRI BUT AGREE WITH
MSO IN HOLDING OFF FOR NOW. A THIRD BATCH OF MOISTURE AFFECTS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS IS AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WHICH
IS OVER THE PAC NW FRI NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SAT.
SURFACE REFLECTION (IE COLD FRONT) WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS STRONGER
THAN WITH EARLIER SYSTEMS WHICH IS DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE BEING
STRONGER. ALSO APPEARS THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY JET
STREAK DYNAMICS AND SOME INSTABILITY. PATTERN SUGGESTS HIGH POPS FOR
SW MT BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE VALLEYS THIS
FAR AHEAD OF THE EVENT. EXPECT PLAINS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
HVR SUGGEST A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN BOTH WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY THU
MORNING AND ALSO EARLY FRI MORNING SO WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
BLANK

.EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY GRADUALLY TRANSFORMS INTO MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHUNK
OF COLD AIR TO INHABIT THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF THIS AND SO TEMPS WILL NOT GET ALL
THAT COLD. POMEROY

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF NN 035/049 033/050 033 04222
    ECEEB 042/025 036/020 040/018 033/018 036 22221211220
CTB NN 032/045 030/046 028 04112
    ECEEB 040/021 034/018 037/016 034/016 034 21121211220
HLN CC 033/046 032/048 030 04332
    CCEEB 042/024 035/018 035/017 033/018 033 23421211220
BZN CC 030/044 027/047 026 04342
    CCEEB 039/019 030/014 034/014 033/015 033 23532211220
WEY SS 022/034 020/035 020 04665
    SCEEB 028/008 022/002 023/002 024/007 029 56752211220
DLN CC 030/046 031/046 029 04342
    OCEEB 035/016 030/015 034/015 032/017 033 24531211220
HVR EE 024/044 023/046 025 04121
    ECEEB 042/020 032/015 035/015 030/013 030 31121211220
LWT EE 030/046 028/048 031 04121
    CCEEB 040/020 034/017 036/017 032/018 035 22322211220

TFX...NONE

MTZ008>015-044>055-300110-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
625 AM MST WED JAN 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO GTFNPWTFX FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.