Lightning Strike in Montana, August 8, 2003

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
300 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2003

.SHORT TERM...
PATTERN OF UPPER TROFS IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RIDGE IN BETWEEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES INTO MONTANA KEEPING AIRMASS WARM AND UNSTABLE. NO
STRONG SHORTWAVES INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OR IN THE MODELS
SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA WITH AFTERNOON HEATING THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING
THE EVENING BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
GENERALLY WEAK BOTH DAYS SO WOULD EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO OCCUR
BEFORE SUNSET...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS BUILDS
NORTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANY DISTURBANCES
SHOULD PASS BY WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA LEAVING US HIGH AND
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA MONDAY...AND WITH 700H TEMPS APPROACHING 15C AND
850H TEMPS NEAR 30C WE COULD AGAIN SEE A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS.
PLAN ON TWEAKING TEMPERATURES UP ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS.
PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO LATE LAST MONTH WHEN TEMPERATURES
CLIMBED WELL ABOVE 100F...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER
BUMPING UP HIGHS EVEN FURTHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO TILT INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH
OUR UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MAKING FOR A COOLER DAY...BUT WITH A
WARM START TO THE DAY THE MERCURY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM TOPPING 90F
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY UNDERGO SOME CHANGES AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  MODELS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER LOW WHICH HAS HAS BEEN PARKED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
SOME TIME BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND WHICH WOULD BRING LOWER HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TO EASTERN MONTANA ALONG WITH S/SW FLOW. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE THIS SUMMER I AM A BIT
RELUCTANT TO BUY COMPLETELY INTO THIS SOLUTION. FOR THE TIME BEING
WILL KEEP THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DRY AND INTRODUCE GRADUAL
COOLING...BUT STILL KEEP TEMPS AOA AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST. CB

KGGW BBB /095 064/092 063/094 9002020
     BBBB 062/097 062/093 062/089 059/088 059/ 92000000000
KGDV BBB /098 066/095 065/095 9002020
     BBBB 064/097 063/093 063/091 062/089 059/ 92000000000

.KGGW...NONE.

MTZ016>027-059>062-081145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1000 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE
BIGGEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.