Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, August 8, 2003

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2003

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING LOWER HEIGHTS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. THINK THE MODELS ARE BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND WILL AGAIN FORECAST TEMPERATURES OF
100 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG S/WV TONIGHT AND A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL DISREGARD THIS SOLUTION AS IT APPEARS
TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA AND KEEP
ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE TRENDED COOLER ON SUNDAY FOR A
COUPLE OF REASONS...LOWER HEIGHTS AND CLOUD COVER. BOTH THE ETA AND
GFS INDICATE A STRONG S/WV WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND PRODUCE A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT NITE AND SUNDAY. PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER EAST TEXAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR ONE MORE DAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ON SUNDAY.

.HGX...HEAT ADVISORY ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

43/33

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 077/101 076/095 073 223
IAH BB 078/100 076/095 074 122
GLS BB 081/092 080/089 079 122

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-091200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
NEAR RECORD HEAT ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 112 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE TOWARD THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IF THEY CAN OVERCOME A STRONG CAP
OF WARM AIR ALOFT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD INTENSIFY
QUICKLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY...BUT IS LOOKING
LIKE IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED ON SUNDAY DUE TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AS FUTURE COMPUTER MODEL RUNS BECOME AVAILABLE.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.