Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 8, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2003

DAYS 1-2...
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE CONVECTION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

THE 12Z DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE NO CHANGE IN THE BASE STATE OF THE
GENERAL CIRCULATION. IN THE HIGH LEVELS TODAY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
FETCH CONTINUES TO BRING A MOIST PLUME ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND THROUGH COLORADO WITH SEVERAL WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AS SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR. 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS COUPLED WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRODUCE ESCALATING CAPE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND THE OLD POLAR FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EAST
COLORADO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE MID TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA CONTINUING TO ASSIST
CONVECTION. WILL LOOK FOR MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION FIRING OVER
COLORADO TO WORK EAST INTO MY ZONES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT AND MUCH NEEDED RAIN IN MOST
AREAS. WET BULB ZEROS LOOK PRETTY HIGH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE HAIL WITH LARGEST STORMS. DRY LAYERS BELOW THE HIGH PLAINS
STORMS MIGHT ALSO PRODUCE SOME WIND.

MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS APPEAR SLIGHTLY BETTER TODAY IN
CAPTURING EARLY CONVECTION, BUT THE AREAL EXTENT AND PHYSICAL
LOCATIONS ARE OFF BY QUITE A BIT. AS A RESULT WILL BASE THIS
FORECAST MAINLY UPON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS.

FOR TEMPERATURES, COLD OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION BOTH
NIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THE NEXT DAY. WILL GO MAINLY 80S SATURDAY
AND BACK INTO THE 90S FOR SUNDAY.

DAYS 3-7...
DIAGNOSTICS TODAY SHOWING WESTERLIES COLLAPSING FAVORING TROFING
OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT AFTER A BRIEF
WESTWARD SHIFT IN OUR RIDGE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO
THE PLAINS FROM MID WEEK TO LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED TO THE LATER PERIODS TODAY. DID BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES
LATE WEEK GIVEN THE WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD AND THE COOL
BIAS OF THE MEX IN THE LATER PERIODS.

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 67 87 67 94 / 30 00 20 30
GCK 64 87 66 94 / 20 00 20 30
EHA 68 90 67 95 / 70 20 20 30
LBL 69 89 70 95 / 70 30 20 30
HYS 66 90 65 93 / 20 00 20 30
P28 70 90 72 94 / 00 30 20 30

.DDC...NONE.

JOHNSON/BURGERT

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-091000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. MANY AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE OVER ONE
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP MOST THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS,
HOWEVER ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
HOWEVER SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING.

UMSCHEID