Hail in Montana, April 25, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
233 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2003

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

AVN AND ETA IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT PUSHING A PACIFIC FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA TO EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z. BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE...LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST IN
CENTRAL ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING FOR HIGH SCATTERED POPS. FRONT SHIFTS
INTO EASTERN ZONES AFTER SUNSET FOR LESS INSTABILITY SO WILL TAPER POPS
WORKING SOUTH AND EAST...BUT KEEP POPS IN ALL NIGHT FROM FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

INTERESTING DAY ON SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO AREA AT SURFACE
AND ALOFT. AIRMASS NOT PROGGED TO BE AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY...WITH
STRONG INVERSION AT 400 MB...BUT LOOKS TO BE BETTER UPPER FORCING
PUSHING INTO WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING....THEN QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL
ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GFS QUICKER WITH THE WAVE AND ETA SLOWER...
GTF PROBABLY THE BETTER. THANKS TO TFX FOR COORDINATING TIMING WITH THIS
FEATURE. WILL AGAIN PUT LIKELY POPS IN WESTERN ZONES FOR THIS FEATURE
...WITH AGAIN...DECREASING POPS SOUTH TO EAST. FAST WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SET UP BY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WAVE ALONG WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WESTERN ZONES WILL PROVIDE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
BY AFTERNOON. STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPH MAY AND UPPER FORCING MAY GIVE WAY
TO SOME WINDY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY...FAST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRYING TO NOSE IN BY END OF THE DAY. MODELS
FORECASTING PRETTY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GOOD LINKAGE AND MIXING. WILL
UP WESTERN ZONES INTO WINDY CATEGORY. GFS FORECASTING POSSIBLE
WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

WILL BE ISSUING A RVS FOR STREAMS IN WHEATLAND COUNTY WHICH HAVE RISEN
TO/NEAR BANKFULL WITH EXPECTED RAINS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
RASCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
ALL MODELS SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER...SOUTHWEST FLOW HOLDS OVER THE REGION
ON MONDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT BASE OF TROUGH HOLDING ALONG
THE WEST COAST. TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY MOVES INLAND AND
PLUNGES INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA WHILE RIDGE PUSHES UP ALONG EASTERN HALF OF
MONTANA. LOW THEN KICKS EAST AND NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY
12Z FRI ALLOWING FOR WRAP AROUND EFFECT INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. OVERALL PATTERN THEN SEEMS TO BE REPEATING WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH/LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN TO BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. ANY
CHANGES TO GRIDS WILL BE MINOR IN NATURE. SPRINGER

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/057 037/060 033/060 035/059 038/055 039/058 039/058
    43/T    30/B    00/B    03/T    33/T    34/W    44/T
LVM 038/056 035/057 032/058 034/059 034/054 036/055 036/055
    66/T    32/W    23/W    33/T    33/T    34/W    44/T
HDN 043/059 038/062 034/061 036/058 037/056 039/059 039/059
    44/T    40/B    00/B    00/E    03/T    34/W    44/T
MLS 046/065 038/060 036/061 034/061 035/059 038/058 038/058
    34/T    40/B    00/B    00/E    03/T    33/W    33/T
4BQ 043/067 039/057 034/060 036/060 036/058 037/058 037/058
    34/T    40/B    00/B    00/E    03/T    33/W    33/T
BHK 043/064 037/058 036/057 034/055 035/057 036/059 036/059
    44/T    40/B    00/B    00/E    03/T    33/W    33/T
SHR 041/057 036/061 034/060 036/056 037/058 037/059 037/059
    33/T    30/B    00/B    03/T    33/T    34/W    44/T

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

MTZ028>042-056>058-WYZ098-099-261130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
531 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WCJIN-WYNW-WYNE