High Wind in Montana, April 2, 2003

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 AM MST WED APR 2 2003

...WILL UPDATE ZONE AND STATE FORECASTS BY 1030 AM...

.SHORT TERM...STRONGEST ECHOES ON RADAR JUST NORTH OF GREAT FALLS
FROM LINCOLN TO LOMA ASSOCIATED WITH BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS ON 12Z
ETA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES.
BEST QPF ON 12Z ETA ALSO OVER NORTHWESTERN TFX ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SPOTTERS IN
THAT AREA REPORT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND NOW...AND WITH
BEST PRECIPITATION STILL NOT THERE YET...WILL LEAVE WARNING OUT.
REPORTS FROM SURROUNDING ZONES STILL REPORTING RAIN MIXED WITH
SNOW. EXPECT SOME COOLING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. SNOW JUST
STARTING TO FALL IN HAVRE...ALONG WITH EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...
SO BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THERE. BEST QPF IS STILL TO THE
WEST OF THAT AREA...SO 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS SEEM REASONABLE...
BUT WILL INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY THERE AS THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LAST
UNTIL 5 PM. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LAST BEYOND THIS TIME...SO
WILL EXTEND ALL STATEMENTS UNTIL 8 PM. BEST ENERGY AND LIFT SEEM TO
BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THEN. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TFX CWA...BUT WITH WEAKER
DISTURBANCES. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HANDLE THIS WELL. A SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THAT
AREA...ALLOWING SNOW IN THE VALLEYS TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW...AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA...SO WILL INCLUDE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON
TRACK COMPARED TO GUIDANCE...WITH ONLY CUT BANKS TEMPERATURE NEEDING
TO BE RAISED A FEW DEGREES AS IT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST HIGH
RIGHT NOW. PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS BEST DYNAMICS
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  COULSTON

.EXTENDED...THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
CANT RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF SNOW AS A COUPLE SHORT WAVES PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP. FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUIET AS A WEAK RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. ON
SATURDAY THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FINALLY WEAKENS AND
STARTS TO PUSH EAST. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER HEAD. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CWA BY
SUNDAY LEAVING A DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON RAIN OR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP UNDER THIS FLOW
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR TUESDAY AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. MEIER

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF OE 043/021 041/023 043 04844
    ECEEE 022/041 021/046 026/047 029/050 029 22443333111
CTB SE 035/016 034/015 037 04++3
    ECEEE 020/038 018/043 024/044 026/047 026 22443333111
HLN OE 047/027 043/023 044 04754
    ECEEE 027/043 023/047 028/050 029/052 029 33443322222
BZN OE 046/023 041/024 044 04764
    ECEEE 023/042 023/044 024/047 026/051 026 43443332222
WEY OS 038/015 032/017 033 04865
    ECCEE 023/032 016/034 019/039 019/043 019 44443322222
DLN OE 044/026 039/023 043 04744
    ECCEE 025/043 023/044 024/047 026/051 026 34443322222
HVR SE 038/016 037/017 043 04++3
    ECEEE 023/039 019/047 026/046 028/051 028 42443333111
LWT OE 043/024 039/021 043 04764
    ECEEE 021/041 018/047 024/044 026/047 026 42443333111

.TFX...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GLACIER
       COUNTY (ZONES 9 AND 10)
    ...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN
       ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AS WELL AS TOOLE AND LIBERTY AND EASTERN
       PONDERA COUNTIES (ZONES 44 THROUGH 46 AND ALSO 48)
    ...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
       HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES (ZONES 11 AND 47)

MTZ008>015-044>055-030110-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
11 AM MST WED APR 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY
A WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR A PORTION OF NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. PLEASE REFER TO GTFWSWTFX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.