Lightning Strike in Montana, April 11, 2003

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
230 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2003

.SHORT TERM...SW FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS LIFTS PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE GREAT BASIN ON MON WHILE OTHER MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE CANADIAN MODEL ARE SLOWER. ETA/GFS HAVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THEIR TIMING
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER PERIODS. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
AND EXPECT INSTABILITY OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO DIFFERENCES ON TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES FEEL BROADBRUSH FORECAST IS BEST. ALTHOUGH FEEL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES THAT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE. BOTH GFS AND ETA
ADVERTISE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL. BLANK

.EXTENDED...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO SHOW RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY ON TUESDAY (DESPITE THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE DIFFERENT
THAN THE REST)...WITH THE SOLUTIONS THEN DIFFERING FROM THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (AT LEAST THEY ARE
SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER). THE GFS CARRIES A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH MONTANA ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS
HAVE A DEEPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
REGARDLESS...HIGHER CHANCE POPS WILL COVER IT FOR NOW. ALL MODELS
THEN EJECT THE TROUGHS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND DIG
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...INDUCING A RIDGE OVER
MONTANA. THIS WOULD IDEALLY BRING LESS PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE.
HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MOISTURE STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MODELS
SHOWING INCONSISTENCY WITH THESE FEATURES...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE THEN MOVES INTO MONTANA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A
DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO...WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN THE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS.  COULSTON

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BE 041/066 040/066 037 04233
    EEEEB 060/037 052/033 050/031 049/032 051 33444333330
CTB EE 037/062 035/061 034 04244
    EEEEB 054/034 049/030 049/028 048/029 050 43444333330
HLN BE 040/068 040/066 040 04233
    EEEEE 061/035 053/031 050/029 051/030 053 33444333332
BZN BB 035/070 035/068 032 04112
    EEEEE 062/034 050/030 050/028 051/029 053 23344333332
WEY BB 022/060 024/058 025 04112
    EWEEE 052/027 044/023 043/021 044/022 046 23355433333
DLN BE 036/067 036/064 033 04233
    EEEEE 057/032 049/028 050/026 051/027 053 43444333332
HVR BE 041/070 040/068 036 04233
    EEEEB 062/036 053/032 048/030 047/031 049 23344333330
LWT BB 040/069 040/067 037 04233
    EEEEB 061/035 050/031 047/029 046/030 048 23344333330

.TFX...NONE.

MTZ008>015-044>055-120010-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
610 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.