Winter Storm in Missouri, March 4 to 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1052 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2003

ICE STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA NORTH OF A LAMAR TO BOLIVAR TO ROLLA LINE.  RAPID ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAVE
OCCURRED IN BATCH OF POST FRONTAL CONVECTION.  VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MAINTAIN THIS CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 939 PM MAR 4TH.......................
STRONG 55KT LOW LEVEL JET...AS SEEN ON THE TUL PROFILER...HAS
DEVELOP WITH VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE AS IT COLLIDES WITH THE FRONT.
ICT VWP HAS 30 KNOT NORTH WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS BLOWING UP ALONG
THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING FREEZING RAIN AND AND SLEET (PER ICT,
THANKS) AND COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. IF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION PERSISTS AND BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED...WE MAY END UP HAVING TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
TO A WARNING.

GRIDS/ZFP/WSW/HWO HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

.SGF...
MO...ICE STORM WARNING TONIGHT NORTH OF A LAMAR TO BOLIVAR TO ROLLA
LINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF A
JOPLIN TO SALEM LINE
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
BOURBON...CRAWFORD AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES.

FOSTER

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA
  SIZED HAIL

  LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  FOR THUNDERSTORMS: THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

  FOR LIGHT ICING: LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT NORTH OF A NEOSHO
  TO SALEM LINE.

  DISCUSSION:

  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
  THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BRING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY TO PORTIONS
  OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  AND TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION BY
  EARLY EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE TRIGGERED ALONG
  AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. ANY STORMS WHICH FORM ARE EXPECTED
  TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...SOME SMALL HAIL IS
  POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS.

  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
  SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.  PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
  CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET THIS EVENING
  NORTH OF A NEVADA TO OSAGE BEACH LINE AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
  PUSHES SOUTH. AFTER MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
  FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN WILL CHANGE
  OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44
  CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.  MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE
  QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.  ICE WILL INITIALLY ACCUMULATE ON
  ELEVATED OBJECTS.  SLICK SPOTS WILL DEVELOP ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY
  BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
  FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE OZARKS.

  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

  A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY
  WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS NORTH OF A NEOSHO TO SALEM LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
  MORNING...THEN TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON. MORNING COMMUTERS SHOULD
  EXPECT A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AS THEY HEAD OFF TO WORK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

SAW