Hail and Lightning Strike in Missouri, March 12, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
100 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS SRN IA AT THIS TIME WITH TEMPS WARMING UP
NICELY ACROSS THE REGION.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE AREA ON THU.

ETA FORECASTS SHORT WAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.  MODEL
FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE AT H3 ACROSS THE SE HALF OF MO AT
MIDNIGHT IN RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WITH THE
GFS VERY CLOSE TO ETAS SOLUTION. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE 850
MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WILL PROVIDE A RAINY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  NGM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE ETA ALL CONCUR
ON COLD FRONT TO LIE ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL BY 12Z THU.  MAV AND MET
POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW FAIRLY CLOSE.

COOL DOWN ON THU WONT BE TOO EXTREME THOU WITH MODELS FORECASTING
850 TEMPS OF 6-8C REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA.  NGM TIME CROSS SECTS
DRY OUT THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY ON THU, SO EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN
TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.

COMPARISON OF THE 12Z UPDATE GFS TO THE 00Z RUN GIVES A SIMILAR
PATTERN FOR MON MORNING.  BOTH RUNS FORECAST AN 80-100 METER HEIGHT
FALL CENTER AT H5 NEAR THE 4 CORNERS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE 500 PATTERN IS FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR SUN
MORNING ON THE GFS, ECMWF, AND UKMET WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SIGNIFICANT TROF APPROACHING THE W COAST.  THE 3
MODELS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN CLOSING OFF THE LOW NEAR THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE BY MON EVENING.  THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A VIGOROUS
SURFACE LOW OVR SW KS TUE MORNING AS A RESULT.  THE 00Z RUN OF THE
GFS AT THAT TIME IS FORECASTING A 50 KT 850 JET ACROSS E MO WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A STORMY AND WET
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.STL...NONE

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-131300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
755 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MONROE CITY (MONROE COUNTY MISSOURI) TO
CARROLTON ILLINOIS (GREENE COUNTY ILLINOIS) TO NASHVILLE ILLINOIS
(WASHINGTON COUNTY ILLINOIS).  WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING NORTH IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND ALL DAY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE  TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LSX (ALL LOWER CASE)

WDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1007 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0950 PM    BARRY                     IL   0.75 INCH HAIL
03/12/03   PIKE                           REPORTED BY PIKE COUNTY
                                          SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT.

0958 PM    GRIGGSVILLE               IL   0.75 INCH HAIL
03/12/03   PIKE                           REPORTED BY PIKE COUNTY
                                          SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT.