Damaging Wind in Missouri, June 10, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
134 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

...WELL ADVERTISED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS KNOCK KNOCK KNOCKIN ON
OUR DOOR...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE OBVIOUSLY CENTERED AROUND THE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MO
AND KS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PWS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL COMBINE WITH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT TO
LEAD TO THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL OF CELL TRAINING WOULDNT BE AT ALL
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS END UP WITH MORE THAN 4 INCHES.
WHILE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS MORNING AND LOWEST FFG ARE
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL JUSTIFIES A FLOOD WATCH ALL LOCATIONS.

18Z SOUNDING IN THROUGH 400 MB SHOWS AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH AN LI OF -11C. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CAP ON THE
ORDER OF ABOUT 1 DEGREE CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULDNT BE TOO DIFFICULT
TO OVERCOME THIS AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS NOT ALL THAT GREAT BUT WITH
SUCH EXTREME INSTABILITY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS COULD CERTAINLY GO ON
TO PRODUCE SOME GOOD (WELL BAD I GUESS) SIZED HAIL WITH DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING AS THE STORMS MORPH INTO LINE SEGMENTS
THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE SHORT TERM VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MEANDERING FRONT IN AND ABOUT THE
AREA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. POSSIBILITY OF A CUT OFF LOW
FORMING NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED CERTAINLY COULD BE BAD NEWS IF
WE ACTUALLY DE REACH OUR RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

ALL GRIDS ARE OUT.

THANKS FOR COORD LSX/TSA/ICT

.SGF...
.MO...FLOOD WATCH WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
.KS...FLOOD WATCH WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.

IZZI

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-110000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
105 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING:
    HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER
    DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

  EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
  AREA AFTER 2 PM...OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
  BY EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
  AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BECOMING SEVERE.
  THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE FROM LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  GOLF BALLS OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. WHILE AN
  ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...CONDITIONS ARE NOT
  ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOS THIS AFTERNOON.

  IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
  WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
  PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN LESS THAN AN
  HOUR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD LEAD TO FLASH
  FLOODING.

  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
  OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR MORE DETAILED
  INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT
  (STLFFASGF)...OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
  NEXT WEEK. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
  THESE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO
  BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED 2 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0331 PM    ELDON                     MO   .88 INCH HAIL
06/10/03   MILLER                         50 MPH WINDS ALSO
                                          REPORTED. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
339 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0335 PM    SUNRISE BEACH             MO   1 INCH HAIL
06/10/03   CAMDEN                         REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0345 PM    2 E LAURIE                MO   .88 INCH HAIL
06/10/03   MORGAN                         REPORTED BY ROAD
                                          DEPARTMENT

MOZ058-070-071-083-110200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 506...IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

DENT...MARIES...PHELPS AND PULASKI.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE FORT LEONARD
WOOD AND ROLLA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL MEDIA OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0358 PM    3 NE DIXON                MO   .75 INCH HAIL
06/10/03   PULASKI                        REPORTED BY TRAINED STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
405 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0404 PM    CLIMAX SPRINGS            MO   .88 INCH HAIL
06/10/03   CAMDEN                         REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.