Winter Weather in Missouri, February 26, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
345 AM WED FEB 26 2003

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS CONTINUE TO CENTER ON THE
TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS EJECTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE FACTORS WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION
TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT ROUND OF
WINTER...WITH A WINTRY MIX NOW EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE MODELS
DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE ETA...BEING SLOWER AND WETTEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER
INCH JUST SOUTH OF PAH.  THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH
THE MVN AREA POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE DAY.  THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS NOT CLEAR CUT...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF
AT LEAST SLEET AND SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AND
THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXING INTO IT IN THE KHOP
AREA.

THE FAR SOUTHEAST IS MOST LIKELY TO MEASURE SIGNIFICANTLY...SO WILL
GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SLEET...SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING
RAIN MAINLY FOR THIS MORNING.  IN THE KPAH AND KPOF AREAS LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW AND SLEET.  FURTHER NORTH CHANCES FOR SNOW
ONLY WILL WORK FOR NOW.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO WARM GIVEN CURRENT METAR/RADAR TRENDS.

WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG SOUTH
OF A DONIPHAN MISSOURI...TO METROPOLIS ILLINOIS...TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE.  THE QPF WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MIXED PHASES
AND POOR ADVERTISING FOR THIS EVENT FEEL THAT AN ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.  WILL END IT AT 3 PM...HOWEVER WESTERN SECTIONS MAY BE
DONE BY NOON.

THE ETA AND GFS BOTH BRING A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS IS
MORE COMPACT AND QUICKER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AND HAS HIGHER
QPF...BUT THE ETA SHEARS IT OUT AND HAS LITTLE QPF.  WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS BOTH PERIODS FOR SNOW NORTH...AND SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTH...AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES ONLY COOL A LITTLE BIT.

SEE NO MAJOR ARCTIC SURGES OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SO LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL NOT RELENT.  AT THIS
TIME...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY...BUT THE ETA AND GFS BOTH
BRING ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.  WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW GOING FOR
THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER...WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN MIX WITH TIME IN THE SOUTH.  WILL KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY DRY BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE ARE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.  THE GFS EVEN INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR
TUESDAY...BUT ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS...SO WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY.
MAY SEE A FEW PEEKS OF THE SUN THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
INDICATE MUCH BETTER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE...THERE WERE FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MAV AND FWC...SO GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE GUIDANCE VALUES WERE UNDERCUT DUE TO DECENT
RADIATION POSSIBILITIES WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLE.

COORDINATED WITH SDF.

.PAH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL 3 PM FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY...THE SOUTHERN TIP OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

DRS

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-261100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
500 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SNOW WILL PRODUCE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OUT OF WESTERN KENTUCKY BY 8 AM.  PLEASE REFERENCE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY /SDFWSWPAH/ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS WINTER
WEATHER EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE QUAD STATE OFF AND ON FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.  AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THEY MAY
OBSERVE THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

DRS