Flash Flooding and Hail in Missouri, April 29, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1248 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS

29/12Z UPPER AIR MAPS DEPICTED THE FOLLOWING.  THE REGION CONTINUES
TO BE AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING WINDS /30KTS/ AS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET
IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 5H CHART SHOWED A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR
THE ARKLATEX REGION WITH SOME MOISTURE AT THAT LEVEL JUST IN ADVANCE
OF THE FEATURE. AT 7H THE REGION WAS WELL EAST OF THE CAPPING
INVERSION BUT DRY AT THIS LEVEL. AT 85H A BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS
POSITIONED FROM NEBRASKA EAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. DEW PT
READINGS ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM AROUND +5 IN THE WEST TO +10 IN
THE EAST.

LOOKING AT SURFACE CONDITIONS AT 29/16Z SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. A VERY
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ACROSS THE CWA...PROBABLY LEFTOVERS FROM
YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. THE TRUE SURFACE FRONT WAS
HIGHLIGHTED BEST BY THE PACKING OF ISODROSTHERMS FROM NORTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL OHIO. AN MCS WAS CHUGGING EASTWARD ALONG THIS
FEATURE AND THE COINCIDENT 85H BAROCLINIC ZONE ATTM. LAPS DATA ARE
SUGGESTING CURRENT LI-S ACROSS THE CWA IN THE -2 TO -5 RANGE WITH
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
WERE ALSO GREATEST IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH VALUES AROUND 1800 J/KG.
READINGS WERE NEAR ZERO ACROSS MY NORTHEAST.

GIVEN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...OR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FORCING MECHANISM...BELIEVE CONVECTION TONIGHT
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE ALREADY SUGGESTING AN UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL. ALSO THERE
MAY BE A LITTLE ADDED SUPPORT IN THIS AREA FROM WHAT MAY BE LEFT OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AREA
THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP MY NORTHEAST PRECIP-FREE AND GO WITH
ISOLATED IN BETWEEN. GIVEN CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WILL
GO WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH. ALSO DENSE FOG MAY BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE NORTH AGAIN. FOR
NOW WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT ASSESS IF
THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY EVOLVES. THE LIMITING FACTOR TONIGHT...AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THE 85H BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO HEAD EVEN
FARTHER NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE WARMER 7H AIR INCHES
OUR WAY. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY WITH
LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MAV HAS BEEN
TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THE PAST TWO RUNS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS DEW POINTS INCREASE AND CLOUD COVER MAY
BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THURSDAY/S SYSTEM.

THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR OUR NEXT
SIGNIFICANT TSRA/SHRA EVENT. WILL KEEP CONFIGURATION OF TIMING AND
POPS CLOSE TO CURRENT WORDING.

FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE
WITH PRECIP-FREE CONDITION AND HIGHS AND LOWS SIMILAR TO CURRENT
FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANOTHER EPISODE OF SHRA/TSRA. WILL END PRECIP AS SHRA IN
THE EAST IN THE FORENOON ON TUESDAY.

.PAH...NONE.

DFS

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-301000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
110 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE
PURCHASE AREA OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.  WEAK BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM
YESTERDAYS STORMS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.  MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE THREAT BEING GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NEARER TO THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A
FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY TO THE EAST...AND
SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD SUNSET.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH THE
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AREA OR THE LAKES AND PENNRILE REGIONS OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...SHOULD
BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND
WEST KENTUCKY. AFTER THURSDAY EVENING...MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED BY 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

MOZ076-292045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

...HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE OVER PERRY COUNTY
MISSOURI...

AT 316 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM
OVER WEST-CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH. THROUGH 345 PM...THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS INTERSTATE 55 TOWARD PERRYVILLE. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF IN
DIAMETER...GUSTY WIND TO 30 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRESLEY