Winter Storm in Michigan, November 23 to 24, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
513 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2003

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING CENTRAL U.S. WITH MIXED PCPN
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE U.P. WITH SOME SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET REPORTED AT A FEW STATIONS ACROSS THE U.P. INCLUDING THE NWS
OFFICE THIS EVENING. UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFF THE WEST COAST...A TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES AND 4 CORNERS REGION
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND EASTERN
SEABOARD. SHORTWAVE AT BASE OF TROUGH IN 4 CORNERS REGION IS STRONG
AS IT IS PULLING OUT ON WATER VAPOR INTO NE AND THERE IS SOME
CYCLONIC SPIN NOTED IN WESTERN NE. BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWS UP ON WATER
VAPOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE ONE THAT
GETS THIS SYSTEM ORGANIZED AND WILL AFFECT CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS
ETA SHOWS THE 500 MB TROUGH FORMING A CLOSED LOW BY 18Z SUN OVER
EASTERN SD.

ETA AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH EACH OTHER WITH HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXCEPT GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER S WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ALSO WITH SFC LOW POSITION EXCEPT GFS SLIGHTLY FURTHER E. NOT A BIG
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 2 MODELS THOUGH. THE ETA SHOWS THE 500 MB LOW
TRACKING E TO NE WI BY 12Z MON AND THE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY 18Z. THE 500 MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE U.P. ON MON AND ENDS
UP NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE ACCORDING TO THE ETA. THE ETA
SHOWS THE SFC LOW TRACKING FROM ERN IA 12Z SUN TO NEAR KMNM BY 00Z
MON AND TO SE LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON AND TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z TUE.
ETA SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS MORNING ACROSS
ENTIRE CWA AND THEN THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STAYS OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN CWA THROUGH 18Z MON BEFORE THIS MOVES EAST WITH THE
WRAPAROUND TO ERN CWA BY 00Z TUE. ALSO BASED ON 1000-500 MB RH
FIELD...APPEARS CWA GETS DRY SLOTTED TONIGHT AND MON MORNING BEFORE
WRAPAROUND COMES INTO W BY 12Z AND THIS WRAPAROUND STAYS THROUGH 00Z
TUE. ETA SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280-I295 SURFACES WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THIS MORNING AND THIS LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAIN
ACROSS CWA THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT BEFORE THE LIFT MOVES OFF TO THE
EASTERN CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE IS THEN SOME ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYSLOT ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES
MOVING INTO WRN CWA AT 06Z. LIFT THEN RETURNS TO CWA IN THE
WRAPAROUND MON WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING OUT BY 06Z TUE. ETA
BUFKIT PUTTING OUT ABOUT 26 INCHES OF SNOW FOR KIWD THROUGH 00Z TUE
AND THIS SEEMS CONCEIVABLE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LAKE EFFECT. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST AND USED 1000-850 THICKNESS
LINE OF 1290 M AS CUTOFF FOR MIXED PCPN AS THIS LINED UP WELL WITH
WHERE MIXED PCPN WAS THIS EVENING AND EARLY MORNING.

DO NOT HAVE TIME TO WRITE MORE.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MIZ001>004-009-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MIZ005-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING MIZ011.
WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MIZ010.
WINTER STORM WATCH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT MIZ006>007-085.
GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

MICHELS

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-241300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
551 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WEST OF AN IRON
RIVER TO NEGAUNEE LINE THROUGH MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA THROUGH MONDAY. EAST OF THIS
LINE...THE SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN TODAY
BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT EAST OF A LINE
FROM MARQUETTE TO IRON MOUNTAIN.

STRONG WINDS OF 15 TO 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER OPEN AREAS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
AND CAUSE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ON LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM
IRON RIVER TO NEGAUNEE WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA. REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN.
WINDS OF 15 TO 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH REPORTS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/MQT (ALL LOWER CASE)

MICHELS