Winter Storm in Michigan, February 11 to 12, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
742 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2003

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE CIRCUMPOLAR VORTEX AND THIS TROUGH COVERS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. AND CANADA. THERE IS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND
500 MB TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST AND A 500 MB RIDGE POKING UP INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES IN THE DEEP 500 MB TROUGH.
ONE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH WI/EASTERN IA AND
NORTHERN IL AND THIS SHOWS UP AS A DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR. THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS ALSO HAD SOME LIGHTNING WITH IT ACROSS THAT AREA WHICH
IS IMPRESSIVE FOR FEBRUARY WITH IT STILL BEING COLD AND FOR BEING
PRETTY FAR NORTH.

FOR TONIGHT...BOTH RUC AND 18Z ETA SHOW 950 MB CONVERGENCE INCREASING
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH 06Z AND THEN THIS WEAKENS. 950
MB CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. WS ETA
SHOWING SOME DOMINANT BANDS SETTING UP OVERNIGHT AND 18Z ETA SHOWING
SOME STRONG CONVERGENCE OVER BARAGA AND MQT COUNTIES TONIGHT ALONG
WITH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. BECAUSE OF THIS...UPPED SNOW AMOUNTS
AND RAISED SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR MQT AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. HAVE HAD LOW VISIBILITIES IN SOME OF THE BANDS THAT HAVE
GONE THROUGH THE OFFICE AND STRONG AND WIDESPREAD ECHO COVERAGE OVER
BARAGA AND MQT COUNTIES. FEEL THIS WILL AT LEAST TELL DRIVERS THAT
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THESE BANDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.MQT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY TNGT
              MIZ001>005-084.
       WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH WED MORNING
              MIZ006-007-085.
       WIND CHILL ADVY TNGT THRU EARLY WED
              MIZ004-005-009>011.
       WIND CHILLS ADVY LATE TNGT THRU EARLY WED MIZ012>014.
       HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.

MICHELS

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-121300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
835 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2003

...WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES OVER WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEPOSIT UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW TO
LOCATIONS EAST OF MUNISING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30
MPH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST GALE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

FREEZING SPRAY...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/MQT (ALL LOWER CASE)

JKL/MICHELS