Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, August 1, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
140 PM EST FRI AUG 1 2003

FIRST AREA OF STORMS EXITING TO THE NE INTO SE MI WITH NEXT LINE
DEVELOPING WEST OF CHICAGO. FRONT IS STILL BACK INTO NW IL AS MODELS
GRADUALLY MOVE SFC LOW OVER LAKES EAST AND FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
REGION. WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVES AND USUAL
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY
ROTATING CLOSED LOW ACROSS LAKES THROUGH WEEKEND. WILL GO LIKELY
POPS TONIGHT AND KEEP CHC THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH OF ACTIVITY MAY BE
DIURNAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ABOUT ANYTIME. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AND IN LINE WITH MODEL MOS.

NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO EXTENDED FORECAST. STACKED LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LAKES TUE-WED...THEN OPENS UP INTO A TROF FROM THE
ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...AND GRUDGINGLY
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE TUE-WED...PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. FOG EXPECTED AROUND
DAWN GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...THIS AFTERNOONS RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  12

.IWX...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.

RES/12

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-021045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
542 AM EST FRI AUG 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS BECOMING
SEVERE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE PRIMARY
TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA MAY EXPERIENCE SEVERE
STORMS...THE GREATEST CHANCE IS WEST OF A BENTON HARBOR MICHIGAN TO
SOUTH BEND TO MARION INDIANA LINE WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
YET KNOWN WHETHER ANY OF THE STORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SEVERE OR NOT. THESE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL BE AROUND THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES, OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX