Damaging Winds in Arkansas, August 1, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
320 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

CURRENT AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH A LITTLE LESS EFFECT FROM
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT REESTABLISHING ITSELF FOR NEXT
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
UNUSUALLY AUGUST AIR MASS AT LEAST IN REGARDS TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH GETTING NEAR OK/KS STATE LINE.  AIR
MASS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAP FAIRLY WEAK.  SHEARING MAY RETARD
TENDENCY TO FORM INTO A LINE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...ALSO SHEARING
FORECAST TO VEER SLIGHTLY PUTTING IT MORE ACROSS BOUNDARIES.  EXPECT
MERGING OF CELLS AND BETTER CHANCES OF A LINE FORMING TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET CHANGES STORM MODE. THINK THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL GO WELL
INTO THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...MAY HAVE ELEVATED CONVECTION ON-GOING AT DAYBREAK.
ONE MAIN DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO TODAY IS THAT BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE
IN CWA WITH INITIAL SURFACE-BASED DEEP CONVECTION FIRING DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH INFLUENCE UPPER HIGH WILL HAVE ON AREA.
WILL TREND TOWARD A SOLUTION WHERE UPPER HIGH HAS BECOME
REESTABLISHED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER AREA WITH HEIGHTS GETTING
HIGHER THAN CURRENT LEVELS BY MIDWEEK.  WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
HIGH...WILL BE SQUELCHING PRECIP CHANCES AFTER THE WEEKEND...AND
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE AIR MASS FROM THE WEEKEND TO MODIFY
IN THE COMING WEEK...AND HAVING SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO BECOME DIFFUSE
AND LIFT NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...AM TRENDING AWAY FROM GFS SOLUTION
THAT KEEPS SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY IN REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

TUL   72   93   70   94  / 50   30   20   10
FSM   73   93   71   94  / 40   40   20   10
MLC   75   96   73   95  / 40   40   20   20
BVO   69   91   67   93  / 60   20   20   10
FYV   67   88   66   88  / 50   30   20   10
BYV   66   88   66   86  / 70   30   20   10
MKO   73   94   70   94  / 50   30   20   10
MIO   68   89   67   91  / 60   20   20   10
F10   74   95   70   94  / 40   40   20   10
HHW   76   97   75   95  / 20   50   40   20

FORECAST ID= 29

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

MATHEWS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
   ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO AFTERNOON
HEATING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COMBINES WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INSTABILITIES WILL BE SUCH THAT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ073-012145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     PITTSBURG

AT 350 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SCIPIO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MCALESTER...HARTSHORNE...
HAILEYVILLE...DOW...HAYWOOD...BACHE...ALDERSON...KREBS...ARPELAR...
SCIPIO...BLOCKER...CROWDER...INDIANOLA AND CANADIAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

ARZ001>002-010>011-019>020-029-OKZ054>072-074-076-020100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
542 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#828 UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

BENTON                CARROLL               CRAWFORD
MADISON               WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 16 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CREEK                 DELAWARE
MAYES                 OKMULGEE              PAWNEE
ROGERS                TULSA                 WAGONER

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

HASKELL               LE FLORE              MCINTOSH

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...BRISTOW...
BROKEN ARROW...CEDARVILLE...CHARLESTON...CLAREMORE...EUFAULA...EUREKA
SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...HUNTSVILLE...JAY...
MOUNTAINBURG...MUSKOGEE...NATURAL DAM...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...OZARK...
PAWNEE...POTEAU...PRYOR...ROGERS...SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...SILOAM
SPRINGS...SPRINGDALE...STIGLER...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VAN
BUREN AND WAGONER.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #825 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CRAIG                 NOWATA                OSAGE
OTTAWA                WASHINGTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARTLESVILLE...MIAMI...NOWATA...PAWHUSKA
AND VINITA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0853 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0812 PM    GORE                      OK   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
08/01/03   SEQUOYAH                       REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

0705 PM    HASKELL                   OK   58 MPH TSTORM WIND
08/01/03   MUSKOGEE                       MESONET REPORT

0645 PM    6 W CLAREMORE             OK   WIND DAMAGE
08/01/03   ROGERS                         LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY NWS EMPLOYEE.

0640 PM    HECTORVILLE               OK   69 MPH TSTORM WIND
08/01/03   OKMULGEE                       MESONET REPORT

0636 PM    3 E GLENPOOL              OK   80 MPH TSTORM WIND
08/01/03   TULSA                          REPORTED MY NWS EMPLOYEE.

0609 PM    TULSA                     OK   1.00 IN HAIL
08/01/03   TULSA

RJS