Lake St. Clair, 2003

Marine Thunderstorm Winds in Lake St. Clair, March 28, 2003

March 28, 2003 · NWS DTX · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

2 marine thunderstorm wind, as filed by the National Weather Service.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 28, 2:58 PM EST, 5 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 28, 2:58 PM EST, 5 hours 19 minutes before
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
258 PM EST FRI MAR 28 2003

MODELS QUITE SIMILAR. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH ENTIRE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUING EAST AND
NORTHEAST SATURDAY...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY RIDGE. AT 500 MB...LARGE TROUGH WEST OF GREAT
LAKES TO BE SHARPENED TONIGHT BY WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS PLUNGING SOUTHEAST...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS ENTIRE HIGH AMPLITUDE 500 MB TROUGH THEN MOVING ACROSS GREAT
LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE GETTING FURTHER REINFORCED.

DEEPER MOISTURE...AS PER 850 TO 500 MB...EARLY TONIGHT PASSES OFF TO
THE EAST WITH SUCH VERY MODEST AT BEST THEREAFTER INTO MONDAY.

OMEGA LIFT SUPPLYING EXCELLENT DYNAMICS THIS EVENING...THEN WEAK
SUBSIDENCE SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND PREVAILS MOST OF WEEKEND.
850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE/LIFT MODEST THIS EVENING...THEN
GOOD DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE LATE TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY...SOME
WEAK CONVERGENCE/LIFT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH NEXT GOOD LIFT MONDAY
NIGHT. 250 MB DIVERGENCE/850 MB CONVERGENCE COUPLING FAIRLY GOOD
THIS EVENING AS WELL...AS WELL AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND 850 TO 500
MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.

WILL GO QUITE CLOSE TO GOING ZONES...AS GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO
OVERNIGHT RUNS IN MOST RESPECTS. GOOD COOL DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW FREEZING WITH BROAD THERMAL TROUGH
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE DRY
FORECAST VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY...DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...AFTER WHICH TIME SOME DIURNAL EFFECT SHOULD AID LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW...AT WHICH TIME EXPECT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TAP MINUS 10C
ISOTHERM AND ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION.

LATER PERIODS...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DEPICTING AT 500 MB HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY...THEN BROAD RIDGE
PREVAILING...THOUGH RIDGE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH RIDING THE RIDGE TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY RIDGE A BIT MORE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL THROUGH REST OF WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS IN VERY
GOOD CONSENSUS PIVOTING WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
MONDAY WEAK RIDGE...THEN LOOKING SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED MOST OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH WEAK LOW PASSING EAST ACROSS LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER
WARM FRONT INTO AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GFS
SUBSEQUENTLY BRINGS LOW/COLD FRONT ON THROUGH BY SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THICKNESSES SHOWING MIX CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY
TUESDAY. WILL ALSO ADD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND ADD
THUNDER FOR FRIDAY...AS ETAXX SHOWS WARM SECTOR IN PLACE WITH
INDICATIONS OF INCREASING APPROACHING CAPE/INSTABILITY AS PER ETAXX.

.DTX...GALE WARNING...UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...LAKE HURON.

DWD

EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 28, 6:45 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes before
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-291000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
645 PM EST FRI MAR 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 82 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. FOR GREATER
DETAIL...SEE THE AREAL OUTLINE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER
82.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES
OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 10 PM...AFFECTING THE CITIES OF
DETROIT...FLINT...LAPEER AND PORT HURON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON
AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LAKE HURON FORECAST FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS OCCURRED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU
CAN ALSO OBTAIN THE LATEST FORECAST ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEB SITE HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

GSS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 28, 6:03 PM EST, 2 hours 14 minutes before
MIZ047>049-053>054-060>062-068-075-082-290000 -

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
603 PM EST FRI MAR 28 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 80 HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
BAY...MIDLAND...SAGINAW...LAPEER...GENESEE...SHIAWASSEE...
LIVINGSTON...WASHTENAW...LENAWEE...HURON AND TUSCOLA
COUNTIES...UNTIL 700 PM EST.

A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN.

GSS
Special weather statement, Mar 28, 6:03 PM EST, 2 hours 14 minutes before
MIZ047>049-053>054-060>062-068-075-082-290000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
603 PM EST FRI MAR 28 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 80 HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
BAY...MIDLAND...SAGINAW...LAPEER...GENESEE...SHIAWASSEE...
LIVINGSTON...WASHTENAW...LENAWEE...HURON AND TUSCOLA
COUNTIES...UNTIL 700 PM EST.

A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN.

GSS
Special weather statement, Mar 28, 7:45 PM EST, 32 minutes before
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Event by event

2 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Marine Thunderstorm Wind, Lake St Clair (U.S. Portion)

When
March 28, 8:17 PM EST
Where
Lake St Clair (U.S. Portion) marine zone, Grosse Pointe
Measured
39 kt (45 mph) measured gust
Reported by
AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC

A 45 MPH wind gust was measured as a cluster of thunderstorms moved over the Detroit River and Lake St Clair.

Marine Thunderstorm Wind, Detroit River

When
March 28, 8:17 PM EST
Where
Detroit River marine zone, Grosse Ile
Measured
39 kt (45 mph) measured gust
Reported by
AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC

What these are

Marine Thunderstorm Wind
Thunderstorm winds of 34 knots or more over coastal or lake waters.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Lake St. Clair in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather history

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5345157, 5345158.