Hail in Kentucky, May 1, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVER FCST AREA WILL DIE OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING BUT CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
SFC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE. HAVE WORDED AS
LIKELY TO DEFINITE OVER ENTIRE FCST AREA. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE ON
THE TRICKY SIDE AS I THINK CAA BEHIND FRONT WILL BE PREVALENT UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER, FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE SERN
COUNTIES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS IN THE NORTH ON
THE COOL SIDE BUT THINK THAT SRN AREAS COULD SEE A SLIGHT REBOUND.

ON THE MID TERM...HAD TO KEEP POPS IN EARLY FRI PM THOUGH I THINK
THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE. WILL TRY TO THROW IN SOME TIMING WORDING.

REST OF FCST TRENDED TOWARDS A WEAK AVN SOLUTION AND THE H5 RIDGE
OVER OHVLY PREVALENT BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
CHANCE POPS OVERSPREAD REGION ON MONDAY STARTING LATE SUN IN THE
SOUTHWEST. DONT BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATER MONDAY AS
THE DRYING SE SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY TOUGH TO ALLOW A QUICK START
TO PRECIP OVER FCST AREA THIS SPRING SEASON. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE
CONFIDENT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER FCST AREA WITH A WARM FRONT FOR
A TRIGGER. CHANCE POPS IN FCST THROUGH THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS WITH
APPROACH OF H5 S/W AND A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BUILDING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE.

ISC GRIDS OUT AND ZONES BY THE BOTTOM OF THE HOUR.

ILN...NONE.

FRANKS

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-011115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
522 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RYAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, OH
209 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0320 PM    1 W CIRCLEVILLE           OH   WIND DAMAGE
04/30/03   PICKAWAY                       COUPLE OF TREES DOWN AND
                                          LARGE LIMBS

0345 PM    4 W CELINA                OH   .75 INCH HAIL
04/30/03   MERCER

0345 PM    BEXLEY                    OH   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/30/03   FRANKLIN