1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 9:05 PM EST, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1005 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003 ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THESE ARE SUPPORTED MAINLY BY THE DIURNAL HEAT OF THE DAY...EXPECT THE STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE OUT RUNNING THEIR SUPPORT AND RAINING THEMSELVES OUT OVER EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE UPPED CLOUDS...POPS AND QPF THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES. GRIDS AND GRAPHICS ARE ALREADY OUT...WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES SHORTLY. .JKL...NONE. GREIF PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW: --------------------------------------------------------------------- 310 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003 THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DISINTEGRATING QUICKLY AS IT PUSHES INTO LESS SUPPORTIVE AIR MASS. SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS WELL...AS CIRRUS SHIELD OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS HURTING INSTABILITY. PROBLEMATIC POPS FOR TONIGHT AS TREND OF THE COMPLEX IN THE PAST HOUR HAS ME WONDERING IF IT WILL EVEN RAIN BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA. WAS CONSIDERING LIKELY BEFORE...BUT NOW HAVE 30 IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND 40 EVERYWHERE ELSE...AS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAGGING BEHIND PROGGED TO PUSH IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER MID LEVEL WARMING CREATES A STRONG CAP ON THE FORECAST SOUNDING AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. AVN HAS INITIALIZED POORLY ON THE FRONTAL POSITION AS WELL AS THE MCC FEATURE. IT HAS THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF OVER US AT 6Z...WHICH SEEMS RIDICULOUS AT THIS POINT. DESPITE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING SOUTH OF MOST OF THE AREA TOMORROW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT POP IN THE NORTH AND CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AS HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS NORTHEST FLOW ENDURES. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ENOUGH FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME DUE TO GOOD RIDGING PROGGED BY THE MODELS. KEPT IN MIND WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. LACK OF TRIGGERS AND EVEN STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGING EXPERIENCED THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER WRAP FOR THURSDAY. MODELS NOW SHOWING ANOTHER BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ON FRIDAY. QPF IS VERY WEAK WITH THIS...AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT POP. EXTENDED...KEPT A PERSISTENCE TYPE OF FORECAST GOING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND S/WVS TO AFFECT THE AREAS SECOND PART OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THEN KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GEOGERIAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1110 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003 14Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N OF LK SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED S FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL IL AND THEN SW INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TX. AN MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HAS MADE A MORE SOUTHERLY JOG IN THE PAST HOUR AND A HALF. AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL KY TO NEAR LEX. CORFIDI VECTORS TAKE THIS SYSTEM MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CO/NM BORDER. CU FORMATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS COMBINED WITH CIRRUS STREAMING OUR WAY SHOULD HOLD BACK OUR TEMPS SOME FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL GO WITH MAINLY MID 80S...PERHAPS A TAD WARMER ALONG THE TN BORDER. META FORECAST SOUNDING TAKE CAPES TO AROUND 3.5K J/KG AND LIS TO -7C OR LOWER. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TO BE BIT WARMER AND HIGHER WITH DEWPOINTS THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. MODIFIED META SOUNDINGS TO SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS AND A TAD LOWER SFC TEMPS LOWER CAPES BELOW 3K J/KG AND LIS TO A MORE MODERATE -5C. STILL CONCERNED WITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AS WBZ VALUES AROUND AROUND 10K FT BASED ON OHX AND ILN SOUNDINGS. WAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY RAISE THIS SOME...BUT CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. THIS AREA IS NOT IN SLIGHT RISK...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN HWO. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER NOON BASED ON CU FIELD WITH MCS APPROACHING AROUND 3 PM. PELTON --------------------------------------------------------------------- 600 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003 WAVE TRACKING IN NORTHERN STREAM IS TRENDING WEAKER WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. THIS WAVE SHOULD MERGE INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EAST BY TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE IS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WEST. HURRICANE CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IN TX. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT AT RAINFALL. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKE AND EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BOUNDARIES MOVING THOUGH...SO HAVE NOT GONE ABOVE 40 POPS IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT IS CLEARLY HIGHER THAN WHAT NGM MOS IS WILLING TO GO...BUT GOING WELL LESS THAN AVN MOS FOR TONIGHT. POPS WILL TEND TO BE BUT CERTAINLY NOT STRICTLY DIURNAL. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE QUITE WARM TODAY BEFORE ANY CONVECTION FIRES UP. GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH DEVELOPING CU WITH WAA OCCURRING AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING. DID NOT VEER FAR FROM NGM MOS TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WENT A LITTLE CLOSER TO AVN MOS POPS TOMORROW AS I EXPECT A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TAIL OFF FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE MOST PART AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT AND SURFACE HEATING FADES. LEFT EXTENDED AS IS. HEINLEIN
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-161100- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1240 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WEST OF A FLEMINGSBURG TO WHITESBURG LINE. THIS AREA LIES WEST OF US HWY 23. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HEINLEIN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flowing water was up to six inches deep across Highway 2039.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2003
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5376540.