Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 16, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

18Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SFC TROUGH OVER THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE CAROLINAS JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED CONVECTION WHICH HAS FINALLY OVERCOME THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE NW SLIPS SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA...AND
OUTFLOWS FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION CONT...COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. WILL THUS USE EVENING CHC POPS IN THE
FORECAST.

FRONT WASHES OUT UPON APPROACH TOMORROW WITH A RESIDUAL TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT WITH ETA SUGGESTING 2500 TO 3000 J/KG CAPES BY AFTERNOON.
A CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT IN MOST SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOULD
DELAY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS IS LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW WITH
MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH AND LOW WET BULB ZEROES.

CHARACTER OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE FROM
TOMORROW THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY WASHING
OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
CONSENSUS IS FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO LOAD UP OVER MANITOBA LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER EASTERN TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH A STRONGER FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE. SOME DRYING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE SYSTEM STARTING
WED.

FCSTID =   33
GSP   70  90  70  89 /  40  30  30  30
AND   70  90  70  90 /  40  30  30  30
CLT   70  90  70  89 /  40  40  40  30
HKY   67  88  67  89 /  40  30  30  30
AVL   63  85  62  86 /  40  30  30  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

HG

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...OR LOCALIZED FLOODING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (SPSGSP) ISSUED AT 410
AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EVERY DAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON ANY GIVEN
DAY...ONE OR TWO COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MOORE

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-162100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE...

TYPICAL MID-JULY HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DUE
TO THE RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED...SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...STORMS DEVELOPING TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY...SO THERE WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY FLASH
FLOODING.

BY MID AFTERNOON...STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. IN ADDITION...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-170300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

...ISOLATED FLOODING AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH SUNSET. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER AFFECTED AREAS. THIS RAINFALL MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.
IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP REPEATEDLY IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA...STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE VERY RAPID RISES AND
SOME COULD APPROACH BANKFULL.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY JUST EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. ANY LOCATION ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER...WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...ANY OF THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...GENERATING HAIL
THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO RELAY REPORTS OF FLOODING...
WIND...OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. DISPATCHERS SHOULD
ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS
INFORMATION.

HG