Tornado and Flash Flood in Kentucky, August 22, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM JUST SOUTH OF
KEVV TO SOUTH OF KMDH TO NORTH OF KPOF. THIS LOCATION IS NOT TOO
TERRIBLY FAR FROM WHAT THE GFS HAS BEEN FORECASTING ALL ALONG.
THEREFORE...WE WILL MAINTAIN OUR PREFERENCE FOR THE GFS IN PREPARING
THIS FORECAST.

CONVECTION HAS REALLY HAD A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE (AS EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) AND A
CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. WHILE THE BEST COMBINATION OF
DYNAMICS...MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST THIS
EVENING...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES FIRE THIS EVENING SHOULD BE GONE BY 9 OR 10 PM.

AS THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...BONE DRY AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS.

THE REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS 90S
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. THE
LATEST LONG-RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE FASTER IN BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE AREA MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...SHIFTED THE
WED/THU CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BACK TO TUE/WED...WITH A RETURN TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL AS OF LATE. AS A RESULT...
HEDGED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE FWC/MAV NUMBERS OVER THE WEEKEND...
THEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MEX ALL NEXT WEEK.

.PAH...NONE.

PRESLEY

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE FOR ANOTHER UNCOMFORTABLE AFTERNOON.
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST
READINGS WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND EXTREME WEST
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE QUAD STATE REGION
LATER TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES US FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...THE
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RJP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1228 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 110 THIS AFTERNOON...

OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE
THE HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY EXCEED 105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

BECAUSE OF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT...IT WOULD BE BEST TO RESCHEDULE
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO A COOLER TIME...SUCH AS THIS EVENING OR OVER
THE WEEKEND. IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...WEAR LOOSE-FITTING...LIGHTWEIGHT...LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.
STAY IN THE SHADE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER OR
OTHER NON-ALCOHOLIC FLUIDS EVEN WHEN YOU ARE NOT THIRSTY. SPEND MORE
TIME IN AIR CONDITIONED PLACES.

PRESLEY