Damaging Wind in Kentucky, April 29, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
450 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE PROSPECT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CURRENTLY HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP IN A SHOTGUN PATTERN
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE THE MCS OF LAST
NIGHT FAILED TO MAKE IT IN. RAIN COOLED AIR AND/OR LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS KEPT THE REST OF THE AREA A BIT COOLER TODAY...AND EVENING
THOUGH SKIES EVENTUALLY CLEARED...CONVECTION HAS BEEN INHIBITED.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL IS A POTENTIAL FOR IT TO POP UP THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A 20 PERCENT POP EVERYWHERE IN THE FIRST
PERIOD IN THE EVENING.  WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DWINDLE. AFTER THIS...SEE NO REASON WHY SKIES WILL NOT BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT. (THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
HEADING OUR WAY...NO DEBRIS FROM OTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AT THIS
POINT...AND DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z ETA SOLUTION OF A WEAK
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.) WITH THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...WILL LOOK FOR VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT
NO MCS IS EXPECTED EARLY IN EITHER DAY. WITH THIS SAID...JUST
ABOUT ANYPLACE IS FAIR GAME FOR CONVECTION...BUT THE CHANCE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER OUR HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST. WILL GO
WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS DURING THE DAYS...WITH CONVECTION
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENINGS.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN POPS.

IN THE EXTENDED SECTION...THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
AND HOLDS ONTO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LONGER THAN IN THE RUN FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...IT IS OVERALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW IT. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TREKS BY TO OUR NORTH AND BRINGS
MOISTURE BACK FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIP.

.JKL...NONE.

HAL

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PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW
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1040 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

FIRST THOUGHTS WERE THAT CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH CWA THIS MORNING
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT PROGGED TO DROP INTO AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...AFTER LOOKING OVER OBS AND REVIEW OF SATELLITE...IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WAS THE RESULT OF A LEFT OVER
BOUNDARY...PROBABLY ONE OF SEVERAL...FROM THE MCC OVER MO AND IL
YESTERDAY. OBS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND
OH...RIGHT ALONG A BMG-CVG LINE AT 12Z. OBS SHOW DEWPOINT
DIFFERENTIAL OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES AND A WIND SHIFT...WITH NE WINDS AT
MANY CENTRAL OH LOCATIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN KY.

MESOETA HAS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SLOWLY INTO CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IT STALLS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
OUR CWA BY MID AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES BACK TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AREA AND DAYTIME
HEATING...AND ANY LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDER LOOKS GOOD. CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS FOCUS
IS LOST FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ONLY PROBLEM WITH CONVECTION IS SHALLOW DECK OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING
INTO NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. CLOUDS WOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION AND KEEP
TEMPS DOWN THERE. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE HINTS AT SOME
EROSION. CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM FOR THE SOUTH AND WEST.
EITHER WAY...PREVIOUS SHIFT HAS GOOD HANDLE ON FIRST PERIOD WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND CHANCE FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW AS WELL. CONSEQUENTLY...NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR WHERE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTS UP.

RAY

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309 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

...FORECAST ISSUES...

IN THE NEAR TERM...POPS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC WITH ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTH PART OF THE AREA.  OTHER FORECAST ISSUES FOCUS ON POP
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

...SHORT TERM...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA.  OTHER SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA BUT HAVE QUICKLY DIED OFF.
RECENT SAT PICS SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS.  EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING AS H5 WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY.  CURRENT TEMPS ARE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE NIGHT AND
YEAR WITH LOWER TO MID 60S CWA WIDE.

00Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THIS EVENING AND ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  ETA/META SEEM
TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER WITH MOISTURE THAN THE GFS THIS GO
AROUND.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO KENTUCKY TODAY.  THIS FRONT HANGS AROUND FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE RETREATING BACK AS A WARM FRONT.  AFTER THAT...WERE
JUST LEFT IN THE WARM SECTOR AND VERY SUMMERLIKE TYPE OF PATTERN.
GENERAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE DRAGGING A SFC COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...PLAN ON RUNNING
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL START OFF MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THEN GO PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  INITIAL H5 WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY
EJECTS OUT TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...META FORECAST
PANELS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE WITH A GENERAL HIGH CAPE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  FOR
NOW WILL RUN GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING FOR
CURRENT ACTIVITY WITH LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. WILL GO
AHEAD AND BUMP UP TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND GO WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80 DOWN SOUTH.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WILL ONLY RUN EARLY CHANCE
POPS.  00Z MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOWS AND IS SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM HERE WILL BE WITH
AFTERNOON POPS.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING EXPECTED OTHER THAN
JUST ORDINARY CONVECTIVE HEATING.  ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BECOME
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY A HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ONCE AGAIN.  WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 30 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...FOR THURSDAY...POP
CHANCES LOOK EVEN LESS.  HAVE KEPT IDEA OF PREVIOUS FORECASTER AND
WILL RUN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WHERE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY TAKE
PLACE.  TEMPS THROUGH THESE PERIODS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

...EXTENDED...

CENTRAL PLAINS LOW FORECAST TO PULL NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
KENTUCKY.  EARLY FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIME FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA.  CLEARING BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

...PRELIM NUMBERS (NOT OFFICIAL)...

LOZ 76/56 80/59 4433
JKL 77/57 79/63 4433

JARVIS

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-301100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED DAY SEVEN TO MON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
603 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY TODAY.  THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AT THIS TIME...THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

HEINLEIN