Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, September 26, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
6 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2003

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE CWA, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THIS
EVENING DEPENDED ON THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST HAS AIDED IN WEAKENING THE CAP ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
GET GOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SPEED SHEAR IS INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA AS A JET STREAK IS NOSING IN THE FROM NORTH, BUT
INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, WITH MEAN LAYER CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO
PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION. THEREFORE, ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 8-9 PM.

KLEINSASSER

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
341 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2003

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE NEXT WEEK ON THE
POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL LATE IN WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT.

TONIGHT:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS WHICH HAS HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND
WEAKEN THE CAP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
LATEST RUC SHOWING THE WEAKEST CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
CWFA WHERE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SQUALL LINE IS DEVELOPING. WOULD
ANTICIPATE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO CLIP PARTS OF OUR CWFA BUT
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT BY 01Z. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ETA/GFS
BOTH SHOW THE THETA SURFACES RISING BETWEEN 305-315K ALONG WITH GOOD
DOWNGLIDE. THE DOWNGLIDE APPEARS TO BE WEAKER ALONG THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE TROF WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWFA DUE TO LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL PARK.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
NO REAL BIG CHANGES HERE EITHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SLIDE DOWN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BULK OF THE HIGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CWFA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHERE WE COULD
RADIATE OUT VERY WELL WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWFA. UNTIL THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BE ON THE DECLINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET BUILDS OVER THE
CWFA.

MONDAY-FRIDAY:
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME. THE GFS/CANDADIAN TENDS
TO KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET. WE
ARE GOING WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW SINCE IT APPEARS TO RESEMBLE
THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE WHICH ALLOWS A FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA
AROUND TUESDAY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE ALSO FOLLOWED THIS TREND SO WE
DO NOT WANT TO GO AGAINST THE GRAIN JUST YET. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
WOULD NOT ALLOW MUCH TIME FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE CWFA. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE WEEK THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL HELP INDUCE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT KANSAS IN THE
SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FRONT
IN OKLAHOMA WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP.

FCSTID =   18/COX
ICT   52  73  46  66 /  10   0   0   5
HUT   49  73  45  66 /  10   0   0   5
EWK   52  73  46  66 /  10   0   0   5
EQA   53  72  46  66 /  20   0   0   5
WLD   53  73  47  67 /  20   0   0   5
RSL   46  73  43  66 /  10   0   0   5
GBD   46  73  43  66 /  10   0   0   5
SLN   50  72  45  65 /  10   0   0   5
MPR   50  72  45  65 /  10   0   0   5
CFV   54  72  47  66 /  20   0   0   5
CNU   53  71  45  65 /  20   0   0   5
K88   53  70  45  64 /  20   0   0   5

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-271030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
535 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE A CAPPING INVERSION
WHICH MAY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION ALTOGETHER. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM TODAY
IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS, GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
COTTONWOOD FALLS TO EL DORADO, TO ARKANSAS CITY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

JMC