Tornado and Hail in Indiana, September 26, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 PM EST FRI SEP 26 2003

CD FRONT FM SE IA TO NR MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SRN INDIANA MOVING LITTLE...AND TEMPS BEING KEPT
DOWN. RADAR SHOWS -TSRA JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACRS THE SRN
FA. DEWPOINTS ACRS THE AREA HAVE MAINTAINED A SLOW CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 50S.

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WL BE PCPN TIMING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM TO PUSH ACRS
INDIANA THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS ARE SET IN PLACE TO PUSH
ACROSS IN THE SHARP TROF. H7 LAYER SHOW STRONG VV AND HIGH RHS
PUSHING ACRS THE FA TONIGHT INDICATIVE OF A SQUALL LINE. NATIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS SHOW TSRA BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE CD FRONT ACRS
CENTRAL IL AND NRN MO. TIME SECTIONS CONCUR STRONG VV AND SATURATED
AIRMASS THIS EVENING.  305K ETA ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...OVR 6 G/KG. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING FAVORABLE
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. H10-H8 LAYER SHOW VERY STRONG
CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LAYER. THUS HIGHEST POSSIBLE POPS LOOK THE
WAY TO GO TONIGHT. SINCE THIS STRONG SYSTEM INCLUDES 40-45 KNT H8
JET ACRS THE AREA FEEL DAMAGING WINDS STILL POSSIBLE. WL KEEP SVR
TYPE WORDING ALSO.

QUICK MOVING CD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND AWL TRY TO
ADJUST GRIDS IN THAT MATTER. NICE MID LVL DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR SAT...BUT GIVEN STRONG CAA...CYCLONIC LOWER LVL FLOW
AND SLIGHTLY NEG CU RULE WL LEAN TOWARD A MOCLDY FCST. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO PUSH ACRS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN
THE STRONG UPPER TROF THAT WL REMAIN ALOFT LOW CHC POPS DO NOT LOOK
UNREASONABLE. TIME SECTIONS HERE HINT AND HIGHER LWR LVL RH/S.

GIVEN THE STRONG CAA TONIGHT WL GO COLDER THAN DEWPOINTS AND MAV MOS
LOOKS GOOD HERE. STRING CAA CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AND WITH A FEW
MORE EXPECTED CLDS PERHAPS WL LEAN COOLER THAN MAV MOS. WITH CLDS
LINGERING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WL LEAN WARMER ON LOWS AND
COOLER ON HIGHS.

.IND...
IN...NONE.

PUMA

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-271100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 AM EST FRI SEP 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...
BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WILL END LATE IN THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECCESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KOCH