Hail in Kansas, May 8, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
130 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED FLOW HAD BACKED SOUTHWEST WITH
BROAD UPPER TROF FM SASKATCHEWAN TO NR BAJA.  DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ALONG MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND SOUTHERN WY.  A LEAD SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTH THRU NEB
WITH TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.  H85 PLOT INDICATED ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH H85 DPS OF 15C.  LATEST H85
PROFILE PLOT SHOWS LLVL HAS INCREASED TO 50KTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS.  EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WAVE...INCREASING
MOISTURE...AHEAD OF SFC/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL CO
THRU WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

TSTMS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WAVE LIFTS FM SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THRU CENTRAL KS BY 18Z AND
THE NEB/KS BORDER AROUND 00Z FRI.  DISTINCT DRY LINE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS KS DURING THE AFTN. SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CWA TODAY WITH
HAIL PRIMARY HAZARD EARLY THIS MORNING FM ELEVATED CONVECTION...AND
THEN AGAIN THIS AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF WARM FNT/DRY LINE.  POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND LATEST DY1 STILL OUTLINES SE CWA
IN MOD RISK...WITH SLGHT RISK FOR REMAINDER OF CWA.

TSTM CHCS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW AND UPPER SYSTEM LIFT
NORTH THRU IA.  FRIDAY WILL SEE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN
TIMING OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF THIS WEEKEND STILL IN QUESTION WITH
GFS QUICKER THAN ETA.  GFS SUGGESTS TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF WARM
FNT POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN KS FRIDAY NIGHT AS LLVL JET INCREASES
TO 40-50KTS.  ATTM WILL MAINTAIN TSTM CHCS BUT ADJUST TIMING TO
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPPER TROF CROSSES THE PLAINS SATURDAY WITH PCPN CHCS
CONTINUING...THEN SYSTEM DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT.  AM NOT PLANNING
SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO EXTENDED ATTM...BUT TIMING OF UPPER TROF NEXT
WEEK (WED) STILL IN QUESTION WITH GFS THE FASTEST...UKMO
SIMILAR...BUT ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF KEEP SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST.

.GID...NONE.

FAY

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND MOVE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER...THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL...AND AS MOISTURE IS
LACKING...MOST SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PENNY SIZE OR LESS.
.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...
AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE A DRY LINE PUSHES EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
SOME LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN HAZARD...
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS YET ANOTHER POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES NEAR SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS
HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

LESS ACTIVE WEATHER IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...BUT WILL MORE
LIKELY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.  EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH SATURDAY.

10