Winter Storm in Kansas, January 15 to 16, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
1235 PM CST WED JAN 15 2003

AFTERNOON SNOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA IN RESPONSE TO DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  MEANWHILE THE MAIN
UPPER TROF AT NOON WAS SHOWING IN WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER WINDS
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.  THIS FEATURE IS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER FORECASTS, BUT WILL PICK UP SPEED AND
ADVANCE TO AN EASTERN NEBRASKA TO EASTERN KANSAS LINE BY MIDNIGHT.

BEST LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 00-06Z BETWEEN
H850-H500 WITH TILT FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE SNOW TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING
AND BECOME HEAVY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ENERGY
DISSIPATES RAPIDLY BY 12Z WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP LEFT THROUGH 18Z
BEFORE ENDING AS DRY AIR SPREADS IN AT THE MID-LEVELS.

HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE TO H850 LOW MOVES TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT,
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT AREA.
THIS SHOULD CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEMS FROM BEFORE
SUNRISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING, BUT STILL REMAIN 10 TO 20
MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF
SOUTH WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIOD APPEARS DRY WITH MAIN FLOW TO
THE NORTHWEST.  BY NEXT WEDNESDAY THE GFS INTRODUCES PRECIP WITH
ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR.  AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY AS
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST.

ROGERS

.TOP...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING THURSDAY
    GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 75 FROM THE NEBRASKA
    LINE TO SOUTH OF TOPEKA NEAR LYNDON, THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD
    GARNETT.  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF NORTH CENTRAL,
    NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT TO MIDMORNING THURSDAY.

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-161100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1205 PM CST WED JAN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A POTENT WINTER STORM IS TAKING AIM ON THE AREA. THIS STORM WILL
BRING 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
75. THIS WOULD INCLUDE HIAWATHA, TOPEKA, LAWRENCE, AND OTTAWA, WHERE
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS FLYING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. TO
THE WEST...LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED...GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE CONCORDIA, ABILENE, MANHATTAN, AND EMPORIA, WHERE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS POSTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
SNOW SHOULD COMMENCE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
THEN END THURSDAY FORENOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL HAZARD OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL ALSO DROP TO NEAR ZERO AS THE WIND BECOMES NORTH AND INCREASES
TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN OPEN AREAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SNOW WILL END EARLY THURSDAY FORENOON, BUT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING, THEN DECREASE SLOWLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TOPEKA.

INCREASING WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND LOW
VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, BE READY FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS.