Damaging Winds in Kansas, April 19, 2003

AREA WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ON TAP TDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SE KS, AS STRONG UPPER WAVE FINALLY KICKS OUT.

HAVE DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH A FFA AT THIS TIME. THE THINKING HERE IS
THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN THIS MORNING WL FALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KS, WITH SE KS GETTING THE MAIN SHOW TNGHT.

TDAY: THUNDERSTORMS SHUD DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA ON THE NOSE OF A 60KT
LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH, AND WL AFFECT SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SE KS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THIS CONVECTION
SHUD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
OUT. BY 18Z SFC LOW WL BE SITUATED OVER GENERALLY NORTHERN TEXAS,
WITH A DRY LINE MIXING EAST WITH A BULGE OVER SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH
TX. A 100KT 250MB JET WL BE NOSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 00Z.
WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE AS THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH THE
DRY LINE, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS GENERALLY
AROUND 21Z. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON HOW
CONVECTION THIS MORNING MODIFIES THE ATMOSPHERE. ATTM, IT APPEARS
THE BEST INSTABILITY WL BE OVER CENTRAL OK, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVING
THE AMOUNT OF LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER WE SHUD HAVE. THE BEST SHOT FOR
SEVERE WX SHUD COME FROM STORMS THAT INITIATE SOUTH OF AREA AND
TRACK INTO CWA. WITH AROUND 70KT OF FLOW AT 500MB, ROTATING STORMS
WL DEFINITELY BE A POSSIBILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS,
ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN INTERACT WITH LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM
MORNING CONVECTION.  THEREFORE, A TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS.

TNGHT: SE KS WL REMAIN IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE, SE KS WL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
TO KEEP SEEING TSRAS OVERNIGHT. SHUD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS 850MB DPS REMAIN THE IN THE 5-8 DEGREE RANGE. SOME SECTIONS OF
THE NE AREAS OF CWA MIGHT BE IN THE WRAP AROUND AREA OF STORM,
WHICH MAY WARRANT SOME POPS.

SUN-MON: BY SUN 12Z SFC LOW WL BE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION, WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING WORKING INTO AREA. BY 12Z MON,
SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES VERY LITTLE, AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS PLACES CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC
RIDGE SLIDES OVER AREA.

TUES-FRI: EXTENDED GRIDS FROM PREV FCST LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK WITH
SYSTEM APPROACHING CWA WED-THURS. SFC RIDGE AXIS WL BE BISECTING CWA
BY 12Z, SO WL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.  BY 12Z WED BOTH THE ECM AND GFS
REALLY HAVE THE GULF OPENED UP AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AREA. THE
ECM HAS THIS WAVE CLOSED OFF OVER THE ROCKIES, WHILE THE GFS IS
WEAKER, WITH MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT. NEVERTHELESS, BOTH SUPPORT
RAPID MOISTURE INCREASES/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER AREA. BY THURS 12Z,
BOTH ECM AND GFS HAVE THIS STRONG UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF GENERALLY
OVER NW KS. THIS WOULD PLACE MOST OF CWA IN A PRIME LOCATION FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WARM FRONT SCENARIO. THEREFORE, WL
CARRY POPS WED-THURS.  BY THURS NGHT, THE EASTERN SECTION OF CWA
MIGHT STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM. ONCE AGAIN, PREV FCST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. WL
LEAVE FRI DRY FOR NOW. THE WEEKEND COULD GET INTERESTING THOUGH,
WITH BOTH ECM AND GFS FCSTING A VERY INTENSE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WEST COAST.

FCSTID = 7
ICT   69  47  63  43 / 100  60  10   5
HUT   66  45  63  42 / 100  40  10   5
EWK   69  46  63  42 / 100  50  10   5
EQA   69  48  63  43 / 100  60  10   5
WLD   70  49  65  43 / 100  70  10   5
RSL   61  43  61  39 /  60  30   5   5
GBD   63  43  63  40 /  70  30   5   5
SLN   65  45  62  40 /  70  50  10   5
MPR   68  46  63  42 /  90  50  10   5
CFV   71  50  63  42 / 100  70  10   5
CNU   71  50  63  42 / 100  70  10   5
K88   71  50  63  42 / 100  70  10   5

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

LAWSON

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-191030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1030 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 4AM ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM ELLSWORTH TO GREAT BEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING LARGE HAIL.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 4 AM, BUT THE BEST
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM