Damaging Wind in Indiana, May 7, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY AS CLOUDINESS DECREASES AND
THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. THE SFC BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO NUDGE INTO
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANY RW/TRW THAT DO DEVELOP TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED RW/TRW OVER THE SW AND NW SECTIONS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAWN THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
RW/TRW. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCE FOR WARM SECTOR RW/TRW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS SFC COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY ALLOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.PAH...NONE.

JAP

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-081000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED TO ADJUST SLIGHT RISK AREA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
332 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE QUAD STATE GENERALLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ELSEWHERE NON-SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND FORECAST WIND FIELDS...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY IN
THE DAY...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT...ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SPECIFIC EVENTS IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT MORE SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY
BE REQUESTED ON THURSDAY.

RJP/JAP