Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, May 28, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
215 PM EST WED MAY 28 2003

PROBLEM THIS FCST IS PCPN CHC TONIGHT AND WITH FRI SYSTEM.

STORMS FIRING IN NRN IL AND SRN WI BEHIND SHRA AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE
REACHED INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS WC IL AND EXPECT DEWPOINTS HERE TO
REACH UPPER 50S AT LEAST.

SHORT WAVE AND CDFNT TRIGGERING SCT TSHRA SHOULD MOVE SE ACROSS MOST
OF CWA THIS EVENING WHILE RESIDUAL SHRA CONTINUE INTO DAYBREAK HOURS
IN ERN CWA THUR. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FAIR SHEAR MAY LEAD TO
SCT HAIL STORMS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD WIND EVENT THIS EVE OVER WRN
CWA.

ETA APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER ON TIMING OF FIELDS EARLY IN
PERIOD SO WILL LEAN TO THAT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN AVN MOS. LATER
PERIODS GFS HAS REMAIN CONISTENT ON SPEED OF FRI SAT SYSTEM THOUGH
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF UPPER AND SFC TROF MAY LIMIT IMPACT ON CWA
WITH BETTER PCPN AND STORM CHCS NORTH. HOWEVER...STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AND SOME SUN FRI SHOULD LEAD US BACK TO MID AND UPPER 70S
THEN. STRONG TROF OVER AND THEN EAST OF US THIS WEEKEND TO RETURN
THE BELOW NORM TEMPS THAT WILL THEN MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THREATENING WITH PCPN WED.

WL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES TONIGHT WITH PRETTY DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG CDFNT. AGAIN RESIDUAL SCT SHRA UNDER UPR TROF IN
ERN CWA THU MORN. CHC TSHRA FRI WITH NEXT FAIRLY STG
SYSTEM.

HAVE GONE BLEND OF AVN...NGM AND ETA MOS DATA FOR TEMPS AS AVN
APPEARED BIT TOO COOL OVER MOST PERIODS AND NGM AND ETA BIT TOO
WARM. CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP MINS TO 50S
TONIGHT. SUN AND STRONG WRM ADVECTION FRI FAVORS WARMER FWC MET DATA
BUT DOUBT 80S WILL OCCUR.

.IND...NONE.

DRT

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-291100-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1212 PM EST WED MAY 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...INCLUDING THE TERRE HAUTE...
BLOOMINGTON AND VINCENNES AREAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
INDIANA INCLUDING INDIANAPOLIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

DRT