Heat in California, May 28, 2003

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2003

TEMPERATURES ARE SOARING PAST THE CENTURY MARK IN MANY SJ VLY
LOCALES THIS AFTN. WHILE THE MERCURY WILL TREND SOMEWHAT LOWER IN
THE DAYS TO COME...IT WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED A SIGNIFICANT
COOLDOWN BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION. BLAME THE HEAT ON A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS PARKED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TODAY. THIS MOUNTAIN OF VERY WARM AIR WILL BUDGE VERY LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL OFF THE CA COAST IS
BEGINNING TO BUMP UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE THIS
AFTN...BUT ITS ATTEMPTS TO KNOCK IT DOWN WILL ULTIMATELY FAIL.
INSTEAD...THIS TROUGH WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN
THURSDAY.  WHILE MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE
MODELS DO ADVECT SOME OF IT ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL CA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THETA-E TEMPS IN THE 850MB-700MB BOUNDARY LAYER ARE
FORECAST NEAR 332 KELVIN BY LATE THURSDAY WITH 700MB-500MB REL HUM
AROUND 60% OVER THE SRN SIERNEV. HENCE...ISOLD TSTMS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGH SIERRA THU AFTN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND TRACK THE REMANTS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CA THU NIGHT INTO FRI AM...DURING
WHICH TIME THERE MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLD SHWRS
AND/OR TSTMS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...500MB HEIGHTS
ARE PROJECTED TO FALL ABOUT 60 METERS WITH A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING
ALOFT. THE MESO-ETA FORECASTS CAPES AROUND 400 JOULES/KG NR THE SIERRA
CREST THU PM/FRI AM...SO WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN FOR THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY.

IN THE MEANTIME...AIRMASS IN THE SJ VLY LIKELY TO BECOME MORE HUMID.
ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
APPARENT TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP MIN TEMPS UP IN MOST AREAS MAKING THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS FEEL RATHER
MUGGY IN THE SJ VLY. (THE 72 DEGREE LOW TEMP AT BFL THIS AM COULD END
UP BREAKING THE RECORD FOR HIGH MIN TEMP ON THIS DATE...AS LONG AS THE
MERCURY STAYS ABOVE 70 DEGREES BETWEEN NOW AND 100 AM THURSDAY.
LIKEWISE...IN FAT...THE 69 DEGREE READING THIS AM IS ONLY ONE DEGREE
HIGHER THAN THE RECORD HIGH MIN FOR THE DATE.) SEE RECORD HIGH MINS
BELOW.

A LITTLE RELIEF MAY COME FRIDAY EVE AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
A BIT AND ALLOW AT LEAST A FEEBLE PUSH OF MARINE AIR THRU THE SAC DELTA
AND INTO THE SJ VLY.  WHATEVER MARINE INTRUSION OCCURS IN THE SJ VLY
FRI NIGHT AND SAT IS LIKELY TO BE SHALLOW...AS THE MODELS ALREADY BEGIN
REBUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CA DURING THIS TIME.
NONETHELESS...TEMPS LIKELY TO TREND FROM MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS MORNINGS GFS RUN BUILDS A
STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BY MONDAY THAN PREVIOUS 00Z RUN.
GFS IS NOW QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS EURO. RIDGE WILL LIKLE REMAIN
STRONG THRU WEDNESDAY. WITH GFS NOW SHOWING 590+ HEIGHTS BUIDING
IN...BROUGHT TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGS FROM PREV FCST...AND SEVERAL DEGS
ABOVE THE 00Z MEX MOS.

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS
MAY 28TH  FAT...68/1984  BFL...70/1975
MAY 29TH  FAT...72/1939  BFL...75/1973

.HNX...NONE.

DURFEE/BINGHAM

CAZ089>099-291230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
514 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF
KINGS CANYON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.