Tornadoes and Hail in Indiana, May 1, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 PM EST THU MAY 01 2003

MAIN CHALLENGE WL BE EARLY ON WITH PSBL SVR TRW ACTIVITY THIS EVE AND
TSTM CHANCES ON FRI. AFTER THAT...MAINLY CONSERNED WITH CLD
TRENDS/TEMPS AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN. LATEST SFC
ANLYS WAS SHOWING AN APRCHG CD FNT FM ABOUT KLAN-KORD-KCOU...WHILE UA
ANLYS HAD A S/W LIFTING NE ACRS CNTRL/SRN IL IN THE SW FLOW. KIND-88D
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS SHOWING AREA OF TRWS MOVING NE ACRS OUR NW
AND WCNTRL COUNTIES WITH VSBL PIX SHOWING GOOD DEAL OF SS ACRS THE
REST OF CNTRL INDIANA.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE APRCG IL S/W INTO ERN
INDIANA AROUND 00Z THIS EVE WITH BEST LIFT ACRS SRN AND ERN PART OF
THE FA THEN AND WELL E OF THE FA OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...CD FNT TO MOVE S
OF THE OH RVR OVRNGT. WL TRIM EVE POPS TO CHC CAT N AND W...KEEP
LIKELY GOING S AND E AND TAKE OUT POPS COMPLETELY OVRNGT. WK S/W
MOVES ACRS NRN INDIANA LATE FRI/FRI NGT. INSTABILITY PROGS SHOWING FM
500-1000 J/KG MAINLY ACRS SRN HALF OF THE FA. AT ANY RATE...ENOUGH
LIFT/INSTABILITY TO GO WITH LOW POPS FRI/FRI EVE. SHOOULD BE PLNTY OF
CLDS AROUND THROUGH FRI NGT AS TIME SECS KEEP LOTS OF LOW LVL MOIST
AROUND AND S/W WV PASSES THROUGH. SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS ACRS
THE FA AND BY SATUDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER IS ACRS LK HU. TIME SECS
SHOWING NICE SOME THINNING OF THE LOW LVL MOIST...BUT CU PROGS STILL
INDICATING DECENT AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CU. PARTLY SUNNY SHOULD BE OK
THOUGH AS WE WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A LITTLE SS. SHOULD BE NICE CLRG
SATURDAY EVE AS THE DIURNAL CU DISSIPATES AND UPR RIDGE APROACHES.
HOWEVER...A STG SFC SYS MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY SUNDAY MRNG
WITH SOME INCRS IN HIGH CLDS EXPECTED TOWARD MRNG AND MORE TRWS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MOS TEMPS WERE PRETTY CLOSE THROUGH THE PD AND APPEAR REASONABLE
BASED ON THE ADVECTION PATTER/CLD TRENDS.

.IND...NONE.

KOCH

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-021045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
546 AM EST THU MAY 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY.  A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL...

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IND (ALL LOWER CASE)