Tornado and Flash Flooding in Indiana, July 8 to 9, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EST TUE JUL 8 2003

FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.

AT 08Z CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAD MOVED EAST OF FORECAST AREA /FA/.
TEMPS WERE FROM AROUND 70 WHERE OUTFLOW HAD PASSED TO NEAR 80 IN
ORIGINAL AIRMASS.

EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAD CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MORNING RUN...THEY
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. ETA LOOKS A LITTLE TOO STRONG WITH SFC
LOW. OTHERWISE WENT WITH MODEL BLEND.

THIS MORNING SHOULD BE QUIET BEFORE MORE STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON OLD BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH MORE
STORMS MOVING IN FROM NW. PRECIP WATER REMAINS HIGH. WITH SUNSHINE
TODAY TEMPS WILL WARM TO AT OR ABOVE MAV/FWC NUMBERS. WENT WARMEST
IN SRN FA WHERE OUTFLOW EFFECTS WERE NOT FELT OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT FRONT TRIES TO COME SOUTH INTO FA BUT DOES NOT SUCCEED. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH MOVE UPPER WAVES WILL LEAD TO MORE
TSRA ACROSS THE FA. WITH GROUND ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS NRN HALF OF
FA...WILL REISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE CLOSE AND LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST
AIRMASS.

ON WED FRONT MOVES BACK N AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT TO THE W.
WITH CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND PROBABLE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES WILL
KEEP SCT TSRA IN FORECAST.

FRONT GETS CLOSE TO FA WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH ON THU. NEW MOS
TEMPS REFLECT THIS AND THUS RAISED TEMPS WED NIGHT BY SEVERAL
DEGREES.

WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND EXACT LOCATIONS OF TSRA...AND THEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH EXACT TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE CHOSEN TO
GO 50 POPS OR LOWER. WILL USE SCT WORDING FOR FIRST FEW PERIODS.

.IND...FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR NRN 2/3 OF FA
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057

CS

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-091100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
500 AM EST TUE JUL 8 2003

...FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ANYTIME FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL...

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IND (ALL LOWER CASE)